Given prevailing economic conditions, an indication of potential improvement in just about any jobs-intensive sector – even if it’s not in the residential construction realm – might sound promising to homebuilders. One leading indicator is the American Institute of Architects‘ Architecture Billings Index for September, which was released this week and showed a reading of 50.4 – the first reading above 50 since early 2008.

This overall increase in the Architecture Billings Index, from 48.2 in August, was driven largely by firms specializing in commercial and industrial projects. The score for residential-project billings remained essentially static in negative territory, shifting from 46.9 in August to 47.0 in September. 

Broken out, the commercial/industrial score for last month was 56.3, the highest reading for that specialty since the summer of 2007, the AIA said. 

Because the Architecture Billings Index is viewed by some analysts as a leading indicator of construction activity, it is tracked along with other economic indicators, such as consumer confidence and equities market activity, for whatever predictive information it might offer on the broader economy. 

Amid 1.7% economic growth in the second quarter and overall payroll declines since April (due in part to the trimming of the Census Bureau’s temporary-job force), construction payrolls shrunk by 21,000 jobs, although architecture-firm payrolls are up slightly from their low for the year, recorded in March.

Average regional scores for the September edition of the Billings Index were 44.5 for the South and 44.5 for the West, but 51.0 for the Midwest and 56.7 for the Northeast. The practice sector scores were 44.2 in the mixed-practice category but progressed upward from there: 47.0 for multifamily/residential, 47.9 for institutional; and 56.3 for commercial/industrial.

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