I’ve got a project management/scheduling question I’ve been playing around in my head with.
If I have a job to let’s say install thousands of feet of base trim that I’ve estimated will take my carpenters 200 labor hrs. to complete…
- If I put 5 carpenters on it starting on Monday will it be done by Friday?
- How about if I put 6 carpenters on in on Monday. Can I be done by Thusday except for the 8 hrs that I will have to send someone there on Friday for?
Or is there another better strategy to use? Just one task, that I’ve estimated at 200 labor hrs., 8hr work days.
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“Function is based on more than utilitarian factors. Ambiance invites use.”- Sarah Susanka
Replies
put 4 on .. in two man teams.. start one team at one end and the other at the other end.. no speeches about competition or anything.. just let human nature take it's course...
if they get done by friday.. pay 'em the balance of the 200 hours
Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
But 4 troops wont get it done in 5 days though.
4 carpenters works out to 4 x 8 x 5 = 160 labor hours. That would leave one labor week (40hrs) (20%) left of the work still to do.
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"Function is based
on more than utilitarian factors. Ambiance invites use."- Sarah Susanka
you didn't state .... or i didn't comprene'.. what your goal is.. to finish it with the least amount of man-hours .. or to get it done before Friday ?
if it's the latter.. go with (3) 2-man teams...i don't like three man teams .. not on baseboard anywayMike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
Mike I figured there just some misunderstanding there. I went huh?? And went
back to look at my question again just to make sure I wrote it correctly.
It purely a hypothetical case and I used "baseboard" just because it was
a relatively simple task (and exactly what I was doing a year ago at this time,
thousands of feet of baseboard). The point or issue I wanted to look
at was how long will it take in regard to one single task depending upon how
the carpenters
are deployed. To tell you the truth running baseboard in my estimation is absolutely
a one person task and virtually never a team job at all. But that's another
debate altogether and will distract from what I'm trying to get a look at here.
Lets substitute "generic task" for "baseboard".
Seriously I spent a little bit of time thinking about how to actually phrase
the question and it took two drafts to write!
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"Function is based
on more than utilitarian factors. Ambiance invites use."- Sarah Susanka
How many pieces can you divide it into before it costs more to add one more guy than his labor will contribute to the project? Some of the costs or resource constraints are normal labor costs, physical space, time to coordinate with other workers, your supervision time, maybe electricity, etc. My guess is that coordination, supervision, and space, in that order, are the most likely limiting factors.
Edited 3/8/2003 10:34:46 PM ET by Uncle Dunc
Uncle Dunc "How many pieces can you divide it into
before it costs more to add one more guy than his labor will contribute to
the project? " that's sort
of what I'm looking at here. It's kind of an optimization question. That's
why I left it kind of open ended asking "Or is there another better strategy
to use? "
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"Function is based
on more than utilitarian factors. Ambiance invites use."- Sarah Susanka
I've never heard of any way to do it that doesn't require some kind of number for the cost of coordination. There aren't many building jobs (probably none) where you can just divide the number of hours of work to be done by the number of carpenters available and get a schedule. In software development, we have a joke about that. Q. What's an IBM man-year? A. 700 guys trying to finish something before lunch.
I don't think an analytical solution is possible. With some real careful thought, you might be able to come up with an equation that includes all the significant factors, but even if you get the right equation, it's not going to give you an answer until you have numbers to put into the equation for each of those factors. And I think the only way you can get those numbers is by experimenting.
jerrald.. you still didn't state your goal.. is it to get done before friday ? or to get the optimum production ?
if it's optimum.. send two guys.. 14 days..
if it's friday.. send 6 guys with 3 set upsMike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
Mike it's ironic that you keep on using the word "Goal" and that
Uncle Dunc used the phrase "resource constraints". I've been KOed
with pneumonia for a few weeks now so during that time I've been reading and
writing a lot. I've been talking few people these past few months regarding
the "Theory of Constraints" that I first learned about reading Eliyahu
M. Goldratt's book The
Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement years ago. This past week I've been
re-reading his book Critical
Chain which is the Theory of Constraints applied in a project
environment.
You all might recall a few weeks ago I put forth the question here "So
what do ya do to play catch up when your projects fall behind schedule?" My
goal is to find out what and how contractors really think about scheduling
and planning. What are the assumptions and thinking that they use and how
does that relate to what's really taking place.
Just the other day I read a study (can't find it now) some consulting firm
made saying that eighty-something percent of construction
projects are delivered behind schedule and I find that I'm
in total agreement with that statement. But what does that say? What does that
tell us?
(That last sentence was part of my first draft of the question here but I
thought it gave away the farm as far as what I was thinking about asking the
question. Sometimes too much information will taint the answer. People will
say what they think is the "correct" answer rather than answering
candidly just what it is they would actually do. So that's why I dropped that
but since I'm being pressed I'm reveling my true motivation. Ya see it was
just I got some real great candid honest feedback from Boss Hog in that "Playing
catch up" discussion and I was hoping to get some more like that from
this topic too.)
Mike my goal is is to find out what contractors subs and GCs alike really
think and know about scheduling and project management.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
jerrald... your company is a couple of notches above mine in terms of record keeping , and estimate-vs-actual records..
if you have 5 carpenters of 1st rate skill and proven productivity.. then you have a different problem than me..
my ideal compan is 3 guys and me ... and a really smart office manager.. so i can float between the field and the office and the customers..
you MAY be at the level where your jobs are that predictable.. but probably not..
i understand , and understood , that this is a retorical question..
in my situation.. i would use my historical records to figure the man-hours.. and come up with your number.. 200.. then i would mentally build the job in my head..with the crew i intend to put on it .. with the equipment available.. with the contraints of the job site.. and with the goal..
for instance:is this a winter job, with no homeowner present.. how much protection of the contents do we have.. will the half-mile drive way be plowed.... if it's rainy season.. do i have the interior trim delivered before the job starts. so i know it's there and ready..
am i trying to bring it in for 200 hours ?.. am i trying to get it done before the customer comes back from the Carribbean ?.. am i trying to park my trim carpenters someplace until the spring weather breaks?
what is the level of quality ? what standard will the job be judged by ?
i build these things in my head.. then go back and check the records... the "good" records don't lie.. the reality is if i estimate 200 hours.. my historic records will probably say 400 hours... the difference is the real world...
but ..... we are not as efficient as a one man company.. in other respects we are more efficient...and efficiency may not really be the most important thing.. can we do the job ? .. can we add one sub to augment our workforce.. can we hire one more guy ?..
with the labor shortages and the fragmentation of the workforce, it is harder and harder just to do the jobs.. is the 200 hours going to be one man 5 weeks ?..
or 5 men 1 week ?.... who cares ? .. i don't have 5 men.. and i don't want them
which production rate do we use.. my best man , or my 2d best man.. or me.. who may or may not even be there ? ( cadioli will say "not" )..
this is all part of the theory of constraints.. remember the book reviews we were doing with blue & sonny ?..
you may be unique to this board.... you have a mid-sized company doing high-end remodeling /interior .. the closest i know of to that would be big ed. in dallas... but you have different contraints than him.. texas ain't the same as any other place in the country..
every time i think i've got this business figured out... i get a 2x4 across the head for a wake-up call... but we do keep trying.. and often times , say.. man if we're this disorganized... what the hell is our competition doing ?Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
jerrald.. another thing: i constantly evaluate my guys based on their flexibility..
as GC remodelers.. we often do things ourselves instead of subbing.. not bery efficient , but the job gets done..
for instance, i couldn't effectively use a trim carpenter.. i can't keep him employed enough to keep him a captive to our production schedule..Mike Smith Rhode Island : Design / Build / Repair / Restore
Mike the other day in
the Wages/what
price for quality /experience discussion I told BUIC that
I would be glad to help him out in evaluating companies in his job search
("if you e-mail me privately I'd be glad to talk with you and help you out."
)
and one of the things I did
say to him in an e-mail to him was
I think that flexibility you speak of is the most important and valuable
atribute in any tradeworker
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Mike there are only four of us altogether (well sort of sometimes we are partnered
with another company which is several times our size and we will also use a
construction temp service to so we will swell up and down). I am (we are) pretty
good at record keeping and I think that's been incredibly helpful in terms
of our own
analysis of what going on within and what's happening to us at times.
As for your thinking the ideal company is "3 guys
and me ... and a really smart office manager.." I actually think
you are right. I'm actually in the market for that really
smart office manager right now. I think that optimum size thing is
really related to the profiles of the kinds of stuff a particular company
is doing but that 4/5 combination I think has some kind of "magic" significance.
"you MAY be at the level where your jobs are that
predictable.. but probably not." No way!!! The whole point is You
can't predict chaos and randomness. You can only hope to be prepared to handle
it when it hits and effects you. I'm not necessarily trying to predict
and handle randomness I just trying to understand it better. I like to at
times think of project management as a lot like skiing fast on a new unfamiliar
trail. I want to go as fast as I can but I also want to be under enough control
that I am able to react to unexpected changes in the terrain.
Re:"then i would mentally build the job in my head." that's
what I am trying to get at here. I'm interested is seeing how different contractors "build
the jobs in their heads". I find it interesting that you say this example
project in terms of teams whereas I obviously did not. The chart I posted in
reply to Gabe's post with those carpenters all deployed as One-man-Teams is
my preferred opinion (and not just another Socratic question). What do you
think are the plusses and minuses to my thinking regarding that?
"with the labor shortages and the fragmentation
of the workforce, it is harder and harder just to do the jobs.." Exactly!
This is getting tougher all the time and it's only going to get worse!
"you may be unique to this board... you have a
mid-sized company doing high-end remodeling /interior .. " actually
I'm very small, and smaller than you in fact but I have a way of looking
at things at times that allows us to flexible and agile and on one project
a few years ago we swelled to around 60 plus some subcontractors to do a
fast project with a real hard unmovable deadline (a theme park like exhibit).
What I am working on is learning to be even better at flexibility and agility.
I want to grow to be a mid-sized operation but not at the expense of profitability
or quality. So I have to have the correct systems and methodologies in place
first.
".. man if we're this disorganized... what the
hell is our competition doing ?" Exactly my point again. I think
if we can really learn and develop this flexibility and agility we can gain
a real market superiority and advantage (and profitability). I think there
is a very real market opportunity out there for a "better managed company" and
that's what I'm looking for I guess. Hey my head is all black, blue, and
lumpy from getting hit in the head by 2x4s!
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Uncle Dunc "I've never heard of any way to do it
that doesn't require some kind of number for the cost of coordination." For the purpose of
this particular question figure that supervision/coordination is taken care of.
It's already extant. I'm trying to isolate and look at a discrete task and trying
to figure out
how
long
it really does take in calendar time.
If I estimated it to take 200 hours can it or can it not be done in 5 days
if I put 5 carpenters on it starting on Monday?
If not why not?
And then what do we do? Give up trying to estimate time and give up scheduling?
"There aren't many building jobs (probably none)
where you can just divide the number of hours of work to be done by the number
of carpenters available and get a schedule." The truth
to that is there aren't any building jobs where you can just divide the number
of hours of work to be done by the number of carpenters available and get
a schedule. Why is that?
(Uncle Dunce Goldratt's book Necessary
But Not Sufficient is supposed to be about the Theory of Constraints
applied to software development, have you read or heard of it? I haven't
read it yet.)
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
The truth to that is there aren't any building jobs where you can just divide the number of hours of work to be done by the number of carpenters available and get a schedule. Why is that?
First of all, there is a learning curve.
Second, there is Murphey's Law.
Third, this is not a factory situation. Each house is a prototype.
Hourly workers are not very interested in deadlines. The mentioned idea of paying them for five days even if it takes only four just might work. If you pay by the piece [or linear foot in this case] it may get done faster but probably not up to your standards.
Perhaps you should replace the word "estimate" with the word "guess".
~Peter
Peter, great points and issues, thanks,
"First of all, there is a learning curve." Do
you mean a "situational learning curve" or the learning curve for ####carpenter
to "learn how to run base molding". Sure there is a "situational
learning
curve" meaning it takes a little while for the labor to look around and
familiarize themselves with the project environment and to think about the best
way to approach the task at hand. The estimator (a good estimator) has generally
figured that in as part of the estimate. In this hypothetical case I may have
actually have come up with a number of 195 labor hours to do the actual task
of the project and figured 5 labors hours to account for mobilization and takedown.
I'm trying to
concentrate on what happens to "the task at hand" based on our scheduling
and planning decisions and for now ignoring the other factors around that. Remember
who I told Uncle Dunc we we would look at supervision/coordination as already
taken care of. That is a good point though and it brings up something that we
do need to consider as estimators.
"Second, there is Murphey's Law." Yup
there certainly is and that's exactly what I was getting at. So the
answer to the question "If I estimated it to take 200 hours can it or
can it not be done in 5 days if I put 5 carpenters on it starting on Monday?" Is
maybe, maybe not.
The 200 labor hour estimate in reality is a probability prediction that might
look like the graphic below.
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However that graphic shows an equal chance for the task to finish early as
to finish late and we know that not really what we can expect in the real world.
However taking into account Murphys Law (If it can go wrong it will) shouldn't
the probability distribution be more heavily weighted towards the late finish
so that the curve graphic would look more like this
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The point of all this is if the GC's super on this particular project asks
me "hey what day can you finish installing the base trim by?" If
I have only five carpenters, I know the task has been estimated for 200 labor
hours, do I tell him "by the end of the day Friday" or do I say "Tuesday
or Wednesday" figuring in for the Murphy factor?
re;"Third, this is not a factory situation. Each
house is a prototype." I heard that before and I don't buy that "it's
a unique prototype" excuse at all. Describing what we do as
building totally unique prototypes each time out is rationalization for our
own inability to plan and it's excuse making. I don't buy it. What
we do is made up of patterns that repeat themselves over and over again.
While we may reorganize the order and resize the quantity of the the patterns
but they aren't new and different each time out.
"Hourly workers are not very interested in deadlines." That
not categorically true at all. That's just a Theory X management point of view
assessment as it's really more related to company culture than anything categorically
absolute. For one thing in many company cultures the hourly employees have
identified that most of what they hear in terms of deadlines (when they do
hear them) are capricious and arbitrary. How many stories can we tell where
carpentry manager/foreman would tell the the 5 carpenters they have to be finished
by Thursday so that he/she could press for the earlier finish? What happens
then is on Wednesday those 5 carpenters look around and say "there is
now way we'll be finished by the end of Thursday and probaly not Friday either" and
then another law of project management kicks in...
Parkinson's Law:Work expands so as to fill the time available for
its completion.
Those 5 carpenters realizing that their manager was being unrealistic have
then predicted a date that they are sure they are "sure" they can
finish by and they will expand the work to take up that time. That's also why
the answer to the question "How about if I put 6 carpenters on in on Monday.
Can I be done by Thursday except for the 8 hrs that I will have to send someone
there on Friday for?" is no too. Those 6 carpenters now will see Friday
as the deadline and the work will expand to fill that space or...
...The manager who made the decision to put 6 guys on it will stick to his
schedule and that one guy working solo on Friday will have more work than he/she
can possibly handle in that 8 hour day and the project will run over in to
Monday and over the 200 labor hour estimate.
So what do we do?
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
>> If I estimated it to take 200 hours can it or can it not be done in 5 days if I put 5
>> carpenters on it starting on Monday?
No, it cannot.
>> If not why not?
Because the more people you have working on the job, the more time they will _necessarily_ spend conferring with each other to make sure the parts they're working on will fit together correctly. This coordination is not preventable waste. It _has_ to be done for the job to come out right.
In the worst case, every man on the crew will have to coordinate with every other man on the crew to get his job done, and the cost of coordination will rise as the square of the crew size. Careful partitioning can reduce that, but the cost of coordination will always rise faster than the crew size.
And then there are the other constraints. Suppose your 200 man hour task was so nicely divisible that 50 guys could do it in five hours of elapsed time. Start at 7:30, skip lunch and be done by 1:00. Except that you can't fit 50 guys into the building with enough room to swing their hammers. Or 50 saws keep popping the main breakers. Or you can't find 50 carpenters. Or whatever.
>> The truth to that is there aren't any building jobs where you can just divide the number
>> of hours of work to be done by the number of carpenters available and get a schedule.
So if you already knew that, why did you ask your question above? :)
>> Why is that?
See above.
>> Goldratt's book Necessary But Not Sufficient is supposed to be about the Theory of
>> Constraints applied to software development, have you read or heard of it?
I've heard of Goldratt, but I haven't read any of his work. My gurus are from an earlier generation. The two books I recommend most often are Controlling Software Projects by Tom DeMarco, and The Mythical Man-month, by Fred Brooks. I wholeheartedly recommend both of them to anyone who's asking the kind of questions you're asking, whether you're talking about software projects or some other kind.
Jerrald,
there was an article within the last year, in JLC I believe ,that talked about something similar.Optimum size crew etc. The author had it all broken down by different wage rates etc. His conclusion was that the smallest size crew---ideally a crew of one, was the most cost effective---not necissarily the fastes,but the most cost effective.
for instance----I notice that having a co-worker with me does not mean that we get done twice as fast. We get done a little sooner ,but not nearly twice as fast.So,in reality most of the money spent on that helper was "wasted".
2men are not twice as fast as 1 man,3 men are not 3 times as fast as 1man etc. Too much socializing goes on,1man inevitably becomes " in charge" and then his own productivity suffers as he has to expend time supervising the other workers,lunch breaks,coffee breaks etc. get drawn out..........so ,one man may be able to do it in 200 hours,but it probably unlikely that 5 men will get it done in 200 man hours.
now,------someone else mentioned telling the crew the time budget---and if they get it done in 4 days ,paying them for 5 anyhow.
I do something like this every day----the results are kind of mixed.I outline the days work----if we get it done in 6 hours,I am THRILLED to pay everyone for 8 hours and go home early. The people I have encountered who work well this way are either already self-employed---or are well on their way to starting their own business. The guys who really aren't seriously interested in starting their own business will eventually begin to allow the allotted work to fill the available time. They would rather work 8 hours at a drawn out pace,expand the lunch break by 15 minutes,take more smoke breaks etc.I think the difference in outlook is----for the business owner or the guy who will eventually become an owner----each work day is a goal,a task to be accomplished---something concrete to be achieved or produced------but for other folks,each work day is just something to be endured----a set number of hours to get through.
Stephen,
Re: "there was an article within the last year, in
JLC I believe ,that talked about something similar.Optimum size crew etc.
The author had it all broken down by different wage rates etc. His conclusion
was that the smallest size crew---ideally a crew of one, was the most cost effective---not
necissarily the fastes,but the most cost effective." Ya gotta help
me here. I'm very interested in reading that. I just got my new JLC-CD Rom the
other day and the search function doesn't seem to work! Can you help find it
for me? I've got to see what what they are saying there. That issue has come
up in other articles here and there and I know Walt Stoppleworth advocates the
One Man Crew but I find the fundamentalist absolute blanket application of their
crew size philosophies wrong (for a number of reasons, not just optimizing schedules).
But then again there is
some good stuff in that One Man Crew thinking too.
"I notice that having a co-worker with me does
not mean that we get done twice as fast. We get done a little sooner ,but
not nearly twice as fast.So,in reality most of the money spent on that
helper was "wasted"" That's my observation too. But
is there a way that we can properly "deploy" and use "helpers"?
I think there is.
"2men are not twice as fast as 1 man,3 men are
not 3 times as fast as 1man etc. Too much socializing goes on," True
plus there are some other inefficiencies that develop too but that is why
the idea of having two "teams" to install this hypothetical base
trim is somewhat anathema to me. I think 4 one man teams beats two two man
teams on this hypothetical base trim job. However again to contradict myself
somewhat I also think "socializing" has
it's good points too. it makes work more enjoyable and fun and perhaps
more importantly socializing is where the teaching and learning takes place.
Your last paragraph (without repeating it or quoting it again here) is all
about company culture don't you think?
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Uncle Dunc good points too,
"the cost of coordination will rise as the square
of the crew size." Where's
that come from? In all my recent reading I have seen it said exactly like or
as specifically as that but I've certainly seen what you said implied. Sort of
goes towards what Gabe
stated as the "1st rule of project management..... It's takes 9
months for a woman to bear a child no matter how many women you assign the task
to."
My line:The truth to that is there aren't any building jobs where you can
just divide the number of hours of work to be done by the number of carpenters
available and get a schedule.
Uncle Dunc reply: So if you already knew that, why
did you ask your question above? :)
My reply: I'm be Socratic with my questioning here but I think you knew that.
I still haven't figured this all out, not by a long shot.
I actually bought Tom DeMarco's Peopleware after
reading his book Slack last
year. That topic of Slack goes right towards a part of what involved in understanding
an applying the Theory of Constraints for anyone who's interested but doesn't
want to spring for the boo there is a good article that appeared in Fast Company
magazine on Slack too (Slack
Off Who says being productive always means being busy?). I have to look
for The Mythical Man-month now that sounds very interesting.
Just wondering what you think; I say Project Management is Project Management
is Project Management whether you are talking about software development, building
homes, or building hydroelectric power plants. The principles are always the
same. Just as Carpentry is a skill that can be taught and learned so is Project
Management.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
>>> ...the cost of coordination will rise as the square of the crew size.
>> Where's that come from?
From the formula for the number of interactions between crew members. Think of the number of interactions as a line from each point in a polygon to every other point. With N points, there are
N - 1
lines ending at each point, so the number of line ends is
N x (N - 1) .
But each line has exactly two ends, so the number of lines is the number of line ends divided by 2,
(N x (N - 1)) / 2
or
(N^2 - N) / 2 .
As N gets larger, the N^2 term quickly becomes dominant.
>> Just wondering what you think; I say Project Management is Project Management ...
In one sense, I'd say Project Management isn't even possible. You can't manage projects because projects don't do anything. You can only manage people.
I've also seen it said that no manager will ever get any more than average performance out of his people. It takes a leader to inspire people to do superior work.
In the sense that you probably mean it, I'm sure there are a lot of common elements between good project managers in different fields. But I suspect that there are also significant differences. Some are because of differences in the work itself, and some are due to the different personalities that are attracted to different kinds of work. Plus lots of other factors, but those are two that came to mind.
Edited 3/9/2003 4:03:28 PM ET by Uncle Dunc
Well Jerrald, you've given us the impression that you're schooled in the basics of management, and that suggests you at least know your way around a Gantt chart. And given that, I'm sure you already know that many tasks are not pure, divisable single threads; and therefore, this is a trojan horse question.
Take your specs, for example: while it's reasonable that a pure linear task could be bisected, it's more likely that there are some parts of the base that will go quickly, and some that will not; and are there any bottlenecks (e.g. only 1 mitre saw, or only enough power to run 1 at a time, or, only 1 compressor, finish nailer, ...).
Given this, it is unlikely to be able to reliably schedule to hit a target time; if the target is a curfew, then you have to plan to undershoot the time. If you paradigm is single-worker, then 200 hours is 5 guys - full-stop, take a checkpoint on day 2 and day 4 for O/T. .
Phill Giles
The Unionville Woodwright
Unionville, Ontario
"I'm sure you already know that many tasks are
not pure, divisable single threads; and therefore, this is a trojan horse
question." Yup I did know
that. Like I said somwhere above the questioning was Socratic in nature.
"it's more likely that there are some parts of
the base that will
go quickly, and some that will not;" Yup that's the Murphy's law rule in action.
"Given this, it is unlikely to be able to reliably
schedule to hit a target
time" Yup again, as is illustrated in this probabilty graph.
View Image
But then again if the the Friday target is a must for whatever reason, isn't
the best way to deploy my personel so that I hit both the Friday target
(the GC's Goal) and not lose money on the job (my company's goal) to deploy
according to the distribution in this chart?
Carpenter
Mon
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Totals
1
8
8
8
8
8
40
2
8
8
8
8
8
40
3
8
8
8
8
8
40
4
8
8
8
24
5
8
8
8
24
6
8
8
16
7
8
8
16
The Estimated 200 Labor Hour Total
200
I think it is and I also think
it interesting that the two charts and graphs look very similiar. I think
that's pretty kool and interesting (if it's true, which I think it is, (...so
far, I'm still looking for verification))
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
I suppose your distribution would be fine if you had a bottomless resource of qualified workers who were infinitely flexible; around here, that would mean that the Tues/Wed/Thurs additional staffing would have to have been diverted from among your other projects (as the US economy continues to tank, I'm sure it will become easier to pick up trim carpenters mid-week to work two days).
My own solution would have been more like 5 guys, work 10 hours mon/tues, then hopefully scale back to 8 hours wed/thurs and plan a 1/2 day Friday with some buffer; OR, work the 10 hours for 4 days and decide on thurs if you need 1/2 guys on Friday to finish up and do reworks. .
Phill Giles
The Unionville Woodwright
Unionville, Ontario
1st rule of project management.....
It's takes 9 months for a woman to bear a child no matter how many women you assign the task to.
Some tasks cannot be accelerated by adding bodies....it only confuses the original task and slows productivity down by having people tripping over themselves.
Gabe
Gabe "Some tasks cannot be accelerated by adding
bodies" Yup! But then
again there are some that can, but it's often how we add (deploy) those bodies
that's wrong don't you think? Looking at my hypothetical example what about
a schedule like this?
Carpenter
Mon
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Totals
1
8
8
8
8
8
40
2
8
8
8
8
8
40
3
8
8
8
8
8
40
4
8
8
8
24
5
8
8
8
24
6
8
8
16
7
8
8
16
The Estimated 200 Labor Hour Total
200
So what else do you have on your Rules of Project Management List? By any
chance have you ever seen this one: Top
10 Sources of Project Failure -
A list you probably won't see on Letterman.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
If the task at hand was to plant 1,000,000 trees in a clear field on a sunny day with 1,000 experienced tree planters you could probably play with the numbers and create several scenerios, give or take 100,000 trees.
But on a multi-dimensioned complex project, there simply isn't a formula that can be used so there isn't on that can be played with either.
Even the largest of corporations have been forced to accept this fact.
A good (experienced) project manager knows what is going on around him and knows how to maximize production from what he has at his disposal without causing undue hardship on his men or equipment.
A good project manager never tells anyone his schedule for acceleration, he simply orchestrates it.
BTW you can add this to your list of reasons for failure.
11. Using the logic that if 1 man can install 1000 feet of floor per 8 hour day then 60 men will lay that same floor in 8 minutes.
Gabe
Gabe"But on a multi-dimensioned complex project,
there simply isn't a formula that can be used...Even the largest of corporations
have been forced to accept this fact." On that I have to disagree.
That is what the the Theory
of Constraints and Critical Chain Project Management (drum-Buffer-Rope)
are all about. About a decade ago now I was working on a new master bath in the
home of a fellow who was the President of Union Carbide at the time. I would
see a book on his desk in his office and sometimes on the nightstand by his bed.
I took note of the book and read it and now listen to the unabridged audio tape
of it three to four times a year. That book is Eliyahu M. Goldratt's The
Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement that I mentioned earlier. The Goal
has often been described as one of the most important and revolutionary business
books or modern times and that's why.
"11. Using the logic that if 1 man can install
1000 feet of floor per 8 hour day then 60 men will lay that same floor
in 8 minutes.
Gabe" That's really just a reiteration of your #1 rule! Still
worth mentioning though.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Answer me only one question Jerrald, "Why aren't you playing in the NHL today?"
Gabe
Too old now, but bad elbows and shoulders when I was younger. They've since been reconstructed. While I did play and loved hockey my pasion was skiing and ski racing (and baseball).
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
The answer is that "Not everyone is cut out to be a Hockey Star".
Just like not everyone is cut out to be a project manager, or a superintendent, or even a good carpenter.
You could give the average guy $10,000 in tools and 10 years to learn to be a real carpenter and most would fail. If you're not cut out to be a carpenter, then all the money and time in the world will not make you one.
100 carpenters equals 100 individuals with varying degrees of ability, drive and personalities.
Project Management is people management and nothing more.
If I can motivate, protect, educate, separate, join, coax, lead by the hand and leave to their own ingenuity the men and women who actually build the building that I'm in charge of, will build it right, below budget and ahead of schedule.
The human element is what makes any formula null and void when it comes to project management.
A formula may be used as a model but can never be trusted to be absolute.
Gabe
Gabe-"The answer is that "Not everyone is
cut out to be a Hockey Star".
Just like not everyone is cut out to be a project manager, or a superintendent,
or even a good carpenter." True and to tell you the truth I never
would have played big time hockey football or baseball but I do look back and
see where I missed as far as skiing was concerned.
But ya know what I don't buy all the natural talent arguments at all. People
can be taught to be good Carpenter. People can be taught to be good Hockey
players. People can be taught to be good Project Managers too. While the Gretskys
and Hulls are about amazing talent the majority of hockey palyers aren't there
based on talent. There's a little bit of talent but most of it is hard hard
training and work. I don't know any hockey palyers personally but my frinds
who have played professional baseball, football,skiing and tennis as well as
my frineds who have won Tony awards will tell you that it's hard work not the
talent that got them there.
An old girl friend of mine actually studied project management in college
and I sort of pooh-poohed that at the time because when I first met here she
really didn't know why there were three prongs on an extension cord. But boy
what she knew that I didn't regarding PROJECTS! (Sarah if you are reading this,
I really didn't know or understand at the time but I do appreciate what you
told back then now).
I think there is a much higher percentage of GCs that don't know didley about
project management than there carpenters who who don't know carpentry. And
my professional experience supports that ( from Holding
a sub to a schedule )
When we receive 'the call"* from a GC that they want us to start
our phase of the project we are only able to start on-time in the eyes of
the GC just less than 50% of the time.
We are only able to complete our jobs on-time in our eyes 35% of the time.
By "on-time in our eyes" I mean if we say the project is going
to take three weeks for us from start to finish and we finish three weeks
after starting then we accurately predicted how long it would take us and
we were on-time.
Since I began recording the scheduling information in my databases in
the last two years 100% of the starting points that GCs originally
scheduled for us as starting points have not been met. In other
words in that time period no GC has ever given us an accurate prediction
of a starting date. While I don't have the statistics for it the to the best
of my memory the last time I recall a GC accurately predicting when they
would be ready for us within their schedule was in 1997.
and my research does too
I'm sitting waiting on one project right now that was originally suppose to
start right after Thanksgiving!
The state of project management and scheduling is pitiful don't you think?
Can't it be improved on? I certainly think it can.
"Project Management is people management and nothing
more." That certainly is a big huge part of it but there's certainly
still more to it than that otherwise why aren't the bartenders of this world
all out buiding skyscrapers?
"The human element is what makes any formula null
and void when it comes to project management.
A formula may be used as a model but can never be trusted to be absolute." The
problem here is you are thinking of Theory of Constraints and Critical
Chain Project Management as forumulas and they aren't. They are methodologies,
ways of looking at and thinking about things.
Just a lucky guess or a lot of talent on the part of Shea Homes?
So you haven't said what you think of the deployment strategy I was suggesting
in the chart I created ( msg#
28355.23)?? Does that work in your estimation?
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
So you haven't said what you think of the deployment strategy I was suggesting in the chart I created ( msg# 28355.23)?? Does that work in your estimation?
No it doesn't. It's based on all things being equal and of course their not.
You've taken an isolated situation that you have been exposed to and applied it to the entire industry.
And no you can't make a carpenter out of anybody, no matter what education you may offer them.
I despise the entire education system in this country for having ruined entire generations with lies about our industry.
Little Johnny is taken aside and told that he's having trouble keeping up with the rest of the class, but not to worry, he can take shop instead and make 25 bucks an hour in construction.
This is done to keep the teacher's average up, not to help the student.
That one line tells the kid that he's not as smart as the rest, he doesn't have to be smart to work in construction and anyone can make 25 bucks an hour showing up on site.
You have the same understanding of project management.
You can lie to yourself, read all the books you want, talk yourself into taking on project management but odds are you will be one of those that are 80% behind schedule, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT YOU BELEIVE.
90% of my projects are ahead of schedule and the rest are on schedule.
Most of the people I work with can say the same.
Gabe
Gabe you are so far off and so far out of bounds. But thanks for your contrbution.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Edited 3/9/2003 9:46:41 PM ET by Jerrald Hayes
You know Jerrald, I like that there's a thinking man out there with concrete suggestions to improve our business and for that, I usually like reading your posts but.........
Your giving me a headach.
After numerous, thoughtful responses, a number of people have pointed out where your desire to create a predicable formula for a predictable outcome is flawed. And most of it due to the unpredictability of people. And you seem to be unwilling to accept that as a condition. I think your dismissal of Gabe's and Nail's points speak volumes.
Don't get me wrong, I think you offer a wealth of information in many of your posts and I can't help but think you'd make a wonderful writer for a trade mag. but your really beating this thing in the wrong direction.
My first reaction to your questions was..........."how can I achieve the proposed outcome, but also enjoy getting there?" In other words, will I achieve completion of said job that will make my client happy, my carpenters happy, (so they'll be there next Monday) and me happy. (So I'll be there on the following Monday) Because, after all, there is life after baseboard! I like to read books, apply ideas and ultimately, make money and enjoy doing it. But what you describe, with the charts, the graphs, and most of all, the following......................
"People can be taught to be good Carpenter."
Jerrald, buddy, it must be the fault of the teachers cause it just ain't true. And a good project manager is just as rare.
"as well as my frineds who have won Tony awards will tell you that it's hard work not the talent that got them there."
Jerrald, your friends are lying to you. You must have talent, however raw that can be developed into skill. Believe me, I've tried to take the guy of the street and applied "hard, hard training and work" and ended up with a deluded laborer. You need to start with talent.
eighty-something percent of construction projects are delivered behind schedule
.........Because of a number of reasonable reasons. Few, if any, have anything to do with poor management of personal. (sorry about the font! I can't change it) I think the delays have more to do with unrealistic scheduals, client changes, and things out of our control. And I doubt this 80% doesn't apply to your jobs, Gabe's, Nail's, Mike's and I know it doesn't apply to mine. Because we all are good project managers.
All this discussion is very good, Jerrald. Thanks for your ideas.
send 25 men--get it done on monday!
"send 25 men--get it done on monday! "Nah
I don't think so. Please see Gabes 1st
rule of project management..... What would probably happen under that
scenario would be you'd have 200 labor hours expened on Monday and probably
be sending one or two people back on Tuesday for a 8 to 16 labor hour estimate
over-run.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
J. H.
Wow , Ithink you got some really great replies on this subject. I'm an old carpenter that enjoys production speed. My question is how can you estimate 200 hrs. I know the obivious answer is past performance but the variables are numerous .
Project management to me means from begining to end. Some of the things I have learned over the years have cut the total amount of time significantly is that the carpenter is not productive if he has to go to the garage to get the base to take it where it is to be installed in a 2 story with basement, hence planning a staging area for the material in various locations when it is delivered stops the long walks on a sunny afternoon.
A mental check list , while the project manager is doing a walk through , with a cup of coffee, before the troops arrive can save many hours of labor . Simple things to be taken into consideration , like readily avaiable power source , general cleanliness, potential complicated or questionable ("how you want it to look") areas are just some of the things you can do to "put out the fires in the morning and enjoy the afternoon".
I have cut many hours off time by doing simple things , like telling the guys I put some pencils and some nail sets next to the fireplace or "want me to bring you a new blade for that miter box" or take a package of coping saw blades out of my pocket and say thought you might need these later on.
I have been part of or incharge of many different personalites that do things differently, such as one man cutting and coping (this is what he was best at) for two guys that installed while a fourth had his own saw and went into a room and took all the measurements came back to the saw and cut and coped all the base .(est. less than 5 % error). To make the most of your man hour day show up 30 min. before quitting time and "inspect what you expect" and listen to what your people have to talk about. This goes for all projects that you will manage and I think you will be smiling to yourself in the end.. Project management is leadership with a human touch , not necessarily numbers management. Be kind to yourself and "knock em dead.
Kool subject huh Nails? Lot of good stuff in what you said there that is a
lot like how I think at times. While above I said I think the 4 one man crews
is better than the two 2-man crews deployment we have done a few jobs sort
of like where you say " such as one man cutting
and coping (this is what he was best at) for two guys that installed while
a fourth had his own saw and
went
into a room and took all the measurements came back to the saw and cut and
coped all the base ." I've done cutting and coping while two guys have
installed but I was looking at the project generically with my example here.
I do think that what actually gets done in the field is to be thought
up and improvised by those people you've sent out there. They're to do what
is best and
most
efficient based on the circumstances they encounter. I like people that can
think on their feet, adapt and change.
Interesting/ironic thing I just noticed too as I clicked and looked at your
profile. I'm 46 born June 7th '56.
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"Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards." ~
Vernon Saunders' Law
Hey gemini... Quite Sunday evening , enjoy shooting the breeze, I understand where your post was comming from , just have a hard time finding "people that can think on there feet adapt and change " . You have one of the most challenging jobs in the building industry one that has great rewards in self satisfaction of a job well done.
An interesting Gemini thing, we have been under the influence of Saturn for the last year and a half. Saturn is the "task maker" the one that makes us "pay the piper " and nothing comes easy ,"no free lunches" we have to work twice as hard on anything we do to make it a success . I swear sometimes during this period I could drag an extention cord across a basketball court and get it snagged on something. The good thing is it leaves our sign on June 3 and things will start going a lot easier for us. Just for fun think back 12 yrs ago about what was happening in your life and over the next year look for similarites as the Saturn influence leaves and once again allows us to be our brilliant selves. Have the best week you ever had and be kind to yourself.