Been reading so much lately about possible recession and that building trades are down. People are “afraid” to spend.
Would really like to know if you have enough to keep you busy and whether or not you have to change your mindset on the type of work and the amt. you’d accept if times get really bad.
I hope this is query isn’t considered an invasion of privacy. I’ve worked for very well off folks for twenty years and if they start feeling the pinch and don’t want to be too inconvenienced by giving up their modes of transportation or holidays “abroad”, they hint that they may just have to let their homes and gardens “go.” To save $, you know.
Replies
I'm currently looking for an apprenticeship position, and everyone is slow.
I'm knocking on every door. Time will tell.
the Boilermakers are looking for apprentices, and journeymen if you have experience.
welding skills are a huge plus, but just building skills will get you in as apprentice.
most of the work is in power production, Boilermakers have the lions share of the work in coal fired powerhouses, as opposed to pipefitters in the nukes and co-gen's
There's never enough work. Over the years I've been as much as 6 mos. to a year backed up. And over that time, have been waiting for the next one. With referral only there's not much chance to catch an occasional job via some form of advertising. However, theres little chance of tirekicking no pay nightmares either.
Last winter there was a period from mid dec through February that was absolutely dead. This winter, while no big backlog, there's been at least a few days a week and a couple larger upcoming projects to cost out.
Last March a wave of "rot" jobs started, man I've never seen so much poor or lack of care turn into money. From bottom to top of house, nothing was sacred. These were on many different homes, but it was surprising to have so much of my work deal with repair.
Much of it I would have categorized Handy Man type work, because it was from structure through finish. Oddly, a couple of the referrals came from "handymen" who seem to want to deal with ............I don't know-change out faucets, closet organizers......whatever.
I see people hanging onto large sums, but I also see the ones with a bit of security managing it better. They should see the value in keeping what they have in good shape, while maybe foregoing the new build or massive remodel. Hopefully they'll still call and I'll see if I can help them. General Carpentry just might weather this storm.
A Great Place for Information, Comraderie, and a Sucker Punch.
Remodeling Contractor just outside the Glass City.
http://www.quittintime.com/
This is the second thread you started on this same subject this week now, but I don't recall seeing you participate in the other after starting it. Did you get lost?
Are you worried about losing your job or trying to determine whether you would be able try to negotiate prices down for the guys doing your work on your project?
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Piff
I think you said it best in the other thread, "talk about it enough and it will come to pass" .........or something like that. Couldn't agree more.
Doing my best not to read all these negative threads about the bad economy.
Doug
I am the opposite doug, can't get enough of reading about the bad economy.
Got completely put out of business as a small time spec builder, and went back to work at the trades but because i kept abreast of the economy, and hope to make the jump back in at the right time.
Have to say though, even though i saw it coming if i would have positioned myself better it would have come out much better. hindsight is always 20/20, and the lessons learned i hope will prove very valuable in the future.
the main thing for me is to try to keep my finger on the pulse and be in position to move when the economy does.
I was talking with co-workers last summer about how i thought people had to have something to put their money into when stocks and real estate are volitale, and was wondering if it might be gold? wish i woulda got some then. also now hearing about art going through the ceiling.
I am of the opinion that when real estate makes a recovery it will move up rapidly within the first year of recovery and if i can see it coming and can get in on 3 or 4 properties at the right time i will sell 2 or 3 to have one paid for just for reading about how bad the economy is. i know just the place if you want in. irregardless, i remain convinced that staying informed is valuable.
I am the opposite Doug, can't get enough of reading about the bad economy.
I shouldn't sound like I have my head buried in the sand but I don't like reading about all the doom and gloom stuff plus I work for someone, not self employed, its not my job to go out and find the work.
We have work booked until Sept, Oct so I don't know if worrying is a priority yet. We have a new man starting tomorrow because we need help!
As I get older I see the importance of saving more as opposed to spending more and putting my money into things that will be available in the event that things go south.
Doug
Thanks for asking. Tell you what happened. I logged on and saw my post but when I clicked on it, a message came up reading "No such discussion exists." Baffled, I tried again, thinking it got deleted.My job is secure unless my employer becomes gravely ill again, but I don't worry about finding work as I can wear many hats. Also, I have a couple good fellas working for me at the going rate and expect that to continue - though they may want me to kick in some extra bread for gas. Wouldn't blame them.I care about the labor force, believe people like us are the actual backbone of this country. Believe wages paid should match skill. I know how much tools cost, workers comp pmts, health insurance, vehicle maintenance and wear/tear on our ole bodies, etc. When I hear millionaires fret over investments, I weigh their perspectives with my own and often shake my head in wonder they even mention finances in my presence. But they keep me employed, bless 'em and I do right by them too.
Keep 'm well fed then!;)I had wondered what was up. You go a week sometimes between posts, but this one was a long absence
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Still cannot find original post about recession worries. If you can, something is up with my pc.
I still have a full board through the end of the summer.
I'm a one-man show doing lots of different things--winter I do interiors kitch/bath/general carpentry, summer I do exteriors door/window installs and repairs, nice fences, porches, decks, patio cover etc... From time to time I go after larger jobs, additions or new construction with subs.
All my work comes word of mouth, I have never advertised.
I try to do the very best quality of work I can possibly muster and I do my best to pay attention to all details and meet the client's needs.
I think that a small outfit like me, with a good client base and good reputation is insulated from twists in the market like we are experiencing. I think that things would have to get really bad for folks not to take care of pressing house needs/remodeling.
my .02$
Waters-
You and i live in the same neck of the woods, things have been good here and probably still will for the next 3/4 of a year.
The rest of the country (most of it) is in bad shape. Its just a matter of time before we get hit here, there's allready lots of sign of problems to come. Im a 3rd gen contractor ive been told over and over, Oregon (PNW) is the last to go into a rec. and the last to come out of it.
For instance we have a house three doors down that has been for sale a year this march, no reason for it, nice nieghborhood, nice house, the price was good to begin with and they have knocked off 20Gs over the holidays. This is now becoming typical.
Ive had 2 seperate aquantences that have been building in Bend (Big customs) the last several years call over the winter, Bends done for a long time. They and the rest of the Bend herd are back in the valley and thankfully most (i have been told) are going to the Portland area for work. Remember what been has been like last 6-8 years?
I recently bid on a huge deck redo last fall, had a contractor bid 15k below me. The guy is working for wages No proffit at all at what he got it for.
Just met with a couple the other night. They gave me a set of plans for about a 150k to 200k job. They told me right off the bat that they are very nervous about moving forward and most likely won't.(atleast not to the scale they were going too).
I dont want to sound pessimistic but i can tell you that in ten years of business ive never felt this kind of change. I think (hope) this year will be good for me, i have a few good sized jobs lined up with some smaller 10k projects also.
One problem with the smaller jobs Fences,decks etc is when things start going down hill and good or atleast capable carpenters start getting laid off- these jobs are the first thing you hear " the guy down the road said he'll do it for $15 dollars an hr"We run into.
Just out of curiosity have you looked on craigs list at what these unlicensed "contractors" will work for.Whats the CCB doing about it ? nothing! Hell theres even guys on there advertising to do electrical and plumbing for $25 hr.
Good luck to ya, hope you and everyone else has a great year.
Passin, I have been at this for 30 years just north of Waters. What you say about the housing industry cycle here is accurate in historical terms. From what I am reading/seeing now in my area the crunch has now arrived in Or. Permitting is way down, not only here locally but according to a good friend who is a BI on the coast there as well. That translates into a drop in building #'s starting within a month or so . It has been good for a long time and now it is shake out time. The best will keep busy as they work for money that doesn't feel the crunch, the rest will struggle to survive for a while now. Hope you aren't extended out on payments for anything and have a broad enough range of skills to take what comes your way. The labor pool has changed within the last 6-10 years here and things are going to be tough. I always survived by working directly for owners, no subcontracting at all during the tough times. The good news is that this state is still a destination state for those looking for what it has to offer and that includes a lot of retirees with funds to do what they want.
They can't get your Goat if you don't tell them where it is hidden.
Dovetail,
Have you seen alot of people from the Bend area coming your way?
No we dont have alot of heavy payments on anything. actualy no payments. But the accountant told me i had to spend a shid load of money at the end of last year to keep the taxes reasonable.
So now i have a pretty crew cab diesel truck a new inclosed trailer, paid all our taxes with the 4rth quarter payment-and i'm broke.
Im thinkin i should have rethunk that tax strategi. having 35k in the bank with a 400 dollar payment doesnt look so bad.
My business has always been flexible on what we will do, as probably any remodeler is. We finished our first Spec home last September and sold it a week before we were finished. (hence the tax bill)
It was such a positive experience for me i want so bad to run out and start 1 right now. Even have 2 lots picked out.
I keep hearing all these mixed signals about where we are right now in the valley for the housing market.
Ive talked to a handful of realtors and they all say that thing are picking up again and the signs are good. ( i tell my perspective clients that things are good too)
But, i talked to the escrow officer at the title company i deal with and she says Bull cocky-She has been twiddlin her thumbs. and she's the 1 of 2 left after the other 6 were laid off.
Passin, I am not "on the street" enough to know if the situation in Bend is bringing more people here. Wouldn't surprise me to see a bunch that left here for there return though. I had to chuckle at your accountants recommendation. A few years back I was in a similar situation and talked to mine and got the same advice. He was stressing the value of the tax write off on new equipment. I hate having to work just to make payments and told him so , he allowed as in my case then it was probably better to skip the expensive equipment and just buy used and cheap for cash and take the tax hit. That way if things went upside down I didn't have to worry. The ability to not take on jobs I don't want because I have money to live on is worth more to me then the new stuff is. I see tax write offs as a good thing for those who see a need to work all the time to earn the money to write off, it just isn't me. I always keep an ear on the local building dept , they have a good idea where things are headed because of the permitting. I don't have a lot of faith in Realtors estimations of the building market.
They can't get your Goat if you don't tell them where it is hidden.
Where are you by the way?
Good ol Springtucky. The right side of I-5. LOL
Passin, I did a major remodel out in Marcola some years back. Nice area.
They can't get your Goat if you don't tell them where it is hidden.
Yes Marcola is a nice area, We did a nice job out there last spring, and a couple of years ago framed a nice custom that sits about 50 yards off the Mohawk river.
Good school system and there sports are consistently in the state play offs. My father in law also lives out there aswell as some friends of mine.
The accountant told me to spend money to avoid paying taxes...
I have never really fathomed that idea. Spend $10.00 to avoid paying $3.00 in taxes. Guess what? I'll spend the $3.00 in taxes and have the other $7.00 left in my pocket. It's like the banks recommending that you take a mortgage so you can save taxes. What they don't say is that you have to pay the mortgage back. So, how does that help? (I understand the power of leverage. Many people don't.)
Time to talk to your accountant and tell him what makes you happy. Or, talk to a new one.
Don K.
EJG Homes Renovations - New Construction - Rentals
Well every year at tax time i bang my head against the wall trying to figure out the system, I have a friend who makes way more money than me, he's self employed also and his tax liability this year is 2500.00 dollars. Go figure.
But mostly what happened with us is the spec home we built and sold, we hafta pay capital gains on, i think thats at 25%. + self employment blah blah.
It was my choice to spend the money, i knew the other route was to pay the full taxes and keep more money in the bank, hopefully it wont bite me in the ####.
we did some other stuff to for our health insurance (HSA) that helped.
As my wife said we can always get a loan on the truck. LOL
Well be fine all in all were still in better shape than we have been on other years past.
your accountant is treating the spec home as capital gain? unless this would put you in a higher marginal rate, i think this should be treated as ordinary income. the more you earn the more you pay. buy some rental property and shelter some of that income. the accountant, should have explained, you buy tools at the end of the year that you will consume, or have to buy anyway. don't depreaciate your truck, write it off last year. the other thing you could have done is prepay your insurance.
be thankful you have income to write off, you could be like me with no income for last 1.5 years. (auto accident, 3 surgeries later). if you don't like to pay taxs now, wait until we get a democrat in office. they all want to raise yor taxes. universal health care will just increase the amount you have to pay. health care is over 15% of the economy. univerasal health care would have to be paid by someone...
"I dont want to sound pessimistic but i can tell you that in ten years of business ive never felt this kind of change. "I had to laugh at that. Ten years is pretty short for observing economic cycles. I have to go back to the early eighties and seventies to recal anything approaching the bad news I am reading about
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You're right. And even the current situation is not as nearly as bad as it was, say in 1981. With a GOOD interest rate being 14%, anything industry construction related, just stopped.
Runnerguy
The current situation reminds me of 1980: the calm before the storm. Fundamentally, we are in much worse shape than 1981. Back then, we all knew that if the interest rates were dropped, the economy would recover. Right not, we have very low interest rates. What is going to lead the recovery now? Bob's next test date: 12/10/07
What is going to lead the recovery now?(quote)
This is what I'm seeing also.........my question is what could possibly help us out of this perfect storm?
"The current situation reminds me of 1980: the calm before the storm. Fundamentally, we are in much worse shape than 1981. Back then, we all knew that if the interest rates were dropped, the economy would recover. Right not, we have very low interest rates.What is going to lead the recovery now?"Yes, the situation is similar, but the guys in DC are going to offer some different medicine this time. In the '80s Paul Volker raised interest rates through the roof and let the markets sort out the wreckage. I remember the aftermath and was fortunate not to loose my job.Here in 2008, nobody in government has the stomach to take those kinds of drastic measures which would clear the system of all the excess debt and allow it to work normally again. Instead I expect they will try to inflate their way out of this mess by papering over the problems and printing money. Like an old boss of mine once said "We don't put out fires here, we just piss on the tallest flames". Whatever crisis pops up, they will throw money at it and as long as the general public has bread and circuses, everything will be A-OK.
Okay...they print money and inflation rises so fast that eventually you need $100 for a loaf of bread and no end in sight. How do they stop the inflation then? Bob's next test date: 12/10/07
"Okay...they print money and inflation rises so fast that eventually you need $100 for a loaf of bread and no end in sight.How do they stop the inflation then? "That's the ten trillion dollar question my friend. If you look back through history, governments in a jam have always resorted to inflation as a quick fix to their economic problems. The fact that it never works in the long run doesn't seem to bother them. In fact one of the great economists of the 20th century, John Maynard Keynes, pretty much summed up their attitude when he said "In the long run we are dead."Inflation is a friend of debtors and a terrible burden on lenders, savers, and people trying to live on fixed incomes.
Edited 1/21/2008 3:41 pm ET by TJK
Busy like a 4 peckered billy goat... (This is not to Blue...only the last part--avert your glance Blue...you know all this)<!----><!----><!---->
Spending 3 or 4 hours a day recently talking to magazine editors writing articles for the coming season and contractors looking for a hedge just in case things do go south in their areas. <!----><!---->
Talked to a franchisee of my main competition in this area--he's quit his system and is looking at joining up with us instead.<!----><!---->
Every day a few more leads come across my desk and most of the guys have their numbers on the site directly. Sure.. Things are rough in a few areas--but there's plenty happening in many areas. Things won't get slow in the majority of areas until the interest rates go up. Sofar as I know the interest rates go up when inflation hits. <!----><!---->
I'll say it again. In Every Economy there are People making money. We still need doctors, accountants, defense contractors, schools...govt. Choose your market and get steady marketing happening.<!----><!---->
A Greek Businessman that started in 1980 with 200$ in his pocket in Barrie once told me... Carpenters Never Starve.<!----><!---->
Here's Blue's Part.<!----><!---->
Overcoming this recession or correction--whadever it is. (Sorry for the book--avert your glance if it is boring but you asked)<!----><!---->
Stock prices are at a record high. Piles of money have just come in from the Middle East--now, watch the shell game. The prices have been inflated due to that and 15 years or so of unrivaled profits taken on the market. (Keep your eye on the walnut). <!----><!---->
Things are maxed out price wise...there's not much that is an opportunity. The old standards are ticking along. Companies have downsized domestic operations and moved manufacturing overseas, as the shareholders have demanded they do since it is profitable. <!----><!---->
Now, in the stock market--somebody has to lose. The smart money has pulled out and stored their cash in gold... it's at what? 900? When they did that...they sheltered themselves from this correction... <!----><!---->
Those shrewd folks will be buying the bargains up in 2-3 weeks time. <!----><!---->
What just happened to all that middleast money that flowed into the Dow? Poof... a pile just vaporized. The people that rode the wave to the highest level and jumped off just in time made the money...those that waited too long... smoked.<!----><!---->
We've shipped piles of money to Iraq, and Pakistan and Israel... bucket loads of late. <!----><!---->
The war has been a make work campaign-and I don't have an answer for that aside from you don't leave a battle half finished. No war should last longer than 30 days. Win without compromise. Don't place limits on the battle--defeat must be overwhelming or others will attempt to challenge you.<!----><!---->
Everything we buy is made in China or Japan and the mundane work is done in India.<!----><!---->
We don't make much here anymore. We have become sedentary. We inherit it or we don't have it. There's no lifetime careers anymore...and no pension to go with it. <!----><!---->
Half of the bankruptcies that happen in the US are due to unpaid healthcare. That money that doesn't get paid is tacked on other people's bills in the form of rate increases, which in turn makes health care further out of reach for more Americans.<!----><!---->
The population is aging; about 4 million people working in America don't pay taxes and ship the money they earn somewhere else. These folks are competing and driving down the cost of skilled labor at the same time. <!----><!---->
With all this, I am not convinced that this will be a long-term recession. It may just be another correction that is done within a few months. Now that stocks have declined and home prices have dropped...there are once again bargains to invest in for profit.<!----><!---->
Solutions. (Just my suggestions)<!----><!---->
Print some money and start spending money on infrastructure--pay well. Impose a tax on any finished manufactured goods to make them competitive with those we make here. <!----><!---->
The currency will then be worth less (so will the debt), and in turn everything China produces will be worth less. With our cheaper currency we will be able to compete better internationally.<!----><!---->
Give every citizen Universal Health Care. <!----><!---->
Export undocumented visitors or grant them temporary permits so that they can pay taxes. Charge them a medical tax--so that they can get basic and emergency medical care. <!----><!---->
Keep our technology here. Stop exporting knowledge. That is our advantage. <!----><!---->
What happened to the Proud America? Build better cars... buy American. Stop exporting jobs by penalizing the companies that do. Make durability job one. No more 30,000-mile brake jobs. Make the brakes last 100,000 miles. Don't build in flaws...find a flaw--fix it.<!----><!---->
Free trade for short-term profit is akin to raping a business... you can make a few bucks in the short term--but you sell the farm or lose it in bankruptcy long term.<!----><!---->
America is rich because we have lots of money here. If you give it away you don't have it anymore. It doesn't get more simple than that. Pay down that debt before it ruins you. <!----><!---->
Balanced trade policy. Make it Law. <!----><!---->
BUILD THE MILITARY--good make work project and will help future bargaining position. Best defense for terrorism is a frightening military machine. <!----><!---->
More money spent within our economy means more money circulating around to pay taxes and knock down the debt.<!----><!---->
Like I said, I don't see a slowdown yet, the phone is still ringing and I don't actually think it will be a long-term recession or depression. Just a correction. Chin up people...find the bright side please?<!----><!---->
We have to roll with it... take it a day at a time, avoid panic and enjoy each and every day.<!----><!---->
Your friendly friggin know-it-all canukian.<!----><!---->
L<!----><!---->
GardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it! Decks Blog
I was with you till this:
and in turn everything China produces will be worth less.(quote)
This will pizz China off and I think personally our gov is more afraid of China right now than a depression...........
Can't have all roses.
They are already upset with their losses in the stock market--their currency is tied to the US Dollar.
The debt is pegged to US dollars.
You are right... Chinese don't generally like to lose--
There are a lot of things I don't have answers for in this pickle. They won't like an import tax either.
Funny... after I wrote that last night--with reticence about even posting it... I heard a Japanese fund manager saying nearly the same thing about it possibly being a correction and opportunity is everywhere in the markets right now.
LGardenStructure.com~Build for the Art of it! Decks Blog
LOL- ya 10 years is nothing compared to alot of you guys on here, but my grandpa, dad and uncle went through it all in the 80s and dad was in business till about 2000.
I dont know when my Grandpa started contracting i believe it was when the "modular" home got super popular. Late 70's?
He had a good sized crew that did setups, skirts, and awnings.Later went into remodeling and sunrooms.
But even in ten years with a pretty good market , great market last 5 years. ive still seen a bunch of Contractors come and go.
Hey i forgot to mention, Ive been reading Breaktime almost half as long as ive been in business, I think ive gotten years of experience added on to my career just for that.
Edited 1/21/2008 11:28 am ET by PASSIN
Now are you talkin' 1880's or 1980's??? Sometimes we have to clarify things with you old timers!! :)
Live by the sword, die by the sword....choose your sword wisely.
"Just out of curiosity have you looked on craigs list at what these unlicensed "contractors" will work for.Whats the CCB doing about it ? nothing! Hell theres even guys on there advertising to do electrical and plumbing for $25 hr."
It's really funny you should mention craig's list--I stuck a planer on for sale this morning and glanced thru the trade work for hire... I saw several looking for work with no license # posted--one even that said "Unlicensed!" I would be constantly losing sleep if I was putting myself out there like that and what IS the CCB doing about it? I'm starting to feel a little more "chippy" about guys working without a license. I think if I ever was outbid or undercut on a job I really wanted and I knew that the outfit was not licensed I might get "snitchy."
Swamped. Trying to turn work down. I'm good until May or August Depending on some decisions (whether I take the jobs.)
Actually too busy, Have worked every day since xmas day, and I still can't keep up.
Had to bring in a network helper to stay ahead of the work.
Remodeling Contractor just on the other side of the Glass City
yeah, I'm all out of work. My income is zippo. probably because I do mostly all landscaping and the ground id frozen solid
"I'd rather be a hammer than a nail"
ROAR!
(and hey you young whippersnapper - what you doing up so late?!? Making more videos for your yahoo site? 2's not a stable number - ya need 3 on there for good geometry y'know...)
"We choose our joys and sorrows long before we experience them."
— Kahlil Gibran
You don't suppose the fact you are 14YO and not in a full time occupation yet has anything to do with it, do you?
Welcome to the Taunton University of Knowledge FHB Campus at Breaktime. where ... Excellence is its own reward!
I have enough work to pay the bills and a rehab waiting for a once over for rental.
This market is gonna get weird. Seems another facit of our biz will become financial counseling. Down the road, booked jobs with deposits will be walked away from.... you will see it.
The cure to all this mess is 100 year mortgages like they have in Japan.... But we are stuck with fiscal idiots running this country. It's gonna get ugly, be prepared.
100 year mortgage?
Russell,
"welcome to my world"