I will be interested to see October’s housing sales numbers when they come out next month. It doesn’t take a genius to predict that they will have fallen off a cliff.
I could be wrong, but with the stock market meltdown, and what I am hearing is a complete freezing of the credit markets-we should begin to see some serious price reductions on houses.
We are also entering what is historically the slowest part of the selling year, fall and winter. Come February, March, I predict that there will be some amazing prices out there.
The only thing I see changing this scenario is if Obama is elected, and then all this would change. If on the other hand McCain were to win, which looks unlikely, prices would continue to crater.
Replies
Hahahahaha!
I'm sorry I'll most likely vote for Obama but frankly I can't see him with any magic wand..
While I don't believe we can continue the failed policies of the republican party I don't see any quick and easy solution out of it either.. First we have to change policy and then slowly allow things to correct themselves..
IT's not going to happen overnight or even in the first 100 days..
We'll be extremely lucky for it to happen in his first term..
so you agree with that housing prices will continue to tank?
short term yes, long term depends..
Inflation is the only way out of this mess, but for inflation to work wages need to inflate not just costs. If wages can continue to be held down prices will keep on tanking.. If wages rise as they need to prices will rebound..
Keep your political #### out of the business folder.
if you'd like to participate here ... learn something about business, then come back.
Jeff
Buck Construction
Artistry In Carpentry
Pittsburgh Pa
ditto
Another result of this housing mess is the rise of the "investor owned" neighborhoods. Where every other house is owned by an investor. Housing prices remain artificially high, yet the neighborhood feels down market. This is not a good thing-it is a very unpleasant thing for a variety of reasons.
Not in my area.
I'd suggest you call one of your local banks that you would actually deal with rather than depend on the MSM for news about New York. There's no credit freeze here and the banks have plenty of money to lend at low rates.
I will second that. It looks like the so called credit squeeze is a big bank problem. It is already disapating as the Libor shows.
And apparently the big bank's problems aren't so bad that they want to the Federal money!
Amazing isn't it! The only problem as it looks like right now is the banks unwillingness to finance business and gov.. I sometimes wonder why these institutions want the economy to go bad.
There's no credit freeze here
Non here either. I just borrowed 10k unsecurred for my sons new business.You get out of life what you put into it......minus taxes.
Marv
You love bad news. I had no problem with your post until you went political at the end. This will end up in the tavern.
Whoever is pres. will have an economy struggling into the first quarter of the next year. It makes no difference who is preaident. After the first quarter, I personally believe, if congress and the next pres will leave things alone, we will be on the way to recovery.
I am just interested to see this months sales figures. I live north of San Francisco, and the housing prices are still very high here.The other thing I did not mention is the rising unemployment rate, as well as the reduction in tax revenue on the local and state level. The state and local governments are big contributors to our economy-spending, as they cut back, this will have a huge impact.
I have pointed out in the tavern, the unemployment rate appears to have remained steady the last 2 weeks.. Why are you so interested in the negative staTS? Why don't you turn them around and realize that 94% of people that want jobs have them? Even in a time when it appears that there is a downturn coming, we are actually pretty strong as a country.
I agree with you frammer.
We are pretty strong as a country.
There is some tough news in my area, friends and business relations have to lay off due to the slow construction market, but geez, did anyone bank any money when we were on the ride of our lives? Shame on those who didn't.
Dont blame government if you went out and spent every dollar you earned and mortgaged up all your properties for 60" tv's.
I am going to get up tomorrow morning and go to work. I will follow up on my leads, stay diligent and keep on working.
There is almost always something to do. If I gotta shovel sh** and fix a sewer, great. (Oh, that job is scheduled for tuesday)
Yes, 2 years ago I was running operations for a decent sized semi-custom builder and wore slacks and a nice collared shirt every day and pulled down a real nice salary, but here we are boys and girls, so it is time to go to work.
What doesnt kill you makes you stronger, and I will be an Ox in another couple of years!!!
Thank you JeffinPA. Everybody wants their entitlements and if they perhaps do not have any they want a candidate that will assure the government gives them.I listen to the stories my father tells me about the Great Depression. Some are horrific. Most are about a country struggling in a bleak economic world but surviving because neighbor took care of neighbor AND no one expected the government to give them something. We have generations that have no experience at work. They view shoveling s*%t as a demeaning job while those of the greatest generation viewed it as an opportunity. It is a sad thing we have lost sight of having personal responsibility for ourselves and liking work - really taking pride in work.That said we are still the envy of all market places - not other market economy rivals that of the US. So why the doom and gloom?Mike
Look at the bright side. There won't be so many jobs "Americans won't do" that the Mexican can take. ;-)
Mike:
My father tells stories of his father in the depression. (I am a little younger, but I guess my parents did something right when they raised me)
I lost my job 2 years ago for the first time in my life.
I did not bother to get unemployment. I figured I could make it on my own.
I took little jobs, anything, did favors for people and asked them to refer me and low and behold, 2 years later, everyone is laying off and I have a full plate of work and bidding stuff every week.
Client who I am fixing the sewer for said, "hey Jeff, know anyone who will fix this, the roto-rooter guy said they dont fix these things" You know my answer.
Demeaning is not being able to put food on the table!
Because 8 years ago under a democratic president things were much better..
Second that 6+% of unemployed does not reflect those underemployed. People like my daughter who with a college degree make less than they would as an assitant manager at a McDonalds.
Nor my nephew who was the Top graduate in his chemical engineering class at the University of Minnesota who's company was closed due to inability to get financing and as a result he's currantly working as a night manager of a convience store..
Or the contractor who used to earn $250,000 a year building new houses reduced to working as a bag boy at the local grocery store.
94%
Ha! Wait untill you lose what you've worked for because the economy is ruined because of some presidents military adventure..
I know, Iraq was all Bill Clintons fault and it's a socialistic trick to make your guys look bad.
know, Iraq was all Bill Clintons fault and it's a socialistic trick to make your guys look bad.
HUH?
You may not want to hear this Frenchy, but there are jobs available. All you have to do is be willing to move. A little less whining about there are no jobs available and a little more flexibility in where you live might be more productive!
A prime example is Jim Allen.
So how much should you pay to get a job?
Should the cost of getting a job take every bit of net worth that you've spent a lifetime to acquire?
As for following Blue's example, can you promise that should I move elsewhere the job won't also disapppear?
I've known too many people who have spent their whole lives chasing the better deal and wind up in the end with nothing to show for it..
I've known too many people who have spent their whole lives chasing the better deal and wind up in the end with nothing to show for it
You are one, if you don't realize that to get a job in your chosen field, you may have to move. Otherwise, you accept what you can get!
There are a few sales jobs here in Minnesota as well as any part of the country.. the differance appears to be that at my age I'm considered too old for an entry level job which most positions advertized are..
Are you really this dense?
Getting a job out of the field you've worked in for the past 17 years at age 60 isn't something easy to do..
Not when there are countless 35 year olds applying for every position.
That does not mean I'm discouraged. or willing to quit far from it.. I get up every morning around 5:30 looking for a position. I network like crazy and spend more than a little time doing pioneer work..
IN the past every single Job I've gotten for the last 3 decades came from referals..
Today with most of my network unemployed or in fear of losing their jobs Those referals aren't coming..
What college degree would that be? The reason I ask is that my nephew, a senior in the Engineering School at University of Washington has recruiters calling him.
If she could nake more at McD's, why wouldn't she?
McDonalds is pretty much a dead end job that doesn't need a college degree to get.. The job in the airline industry had promised to be massively more lucerative than it wound up being but given time she will pass the earnings of a McDonalds manager and be in line for senior airline management. Those guys do make really nice coin..
Not to add any more politics, but airline management unfortunately is some of the worst management in US industry.
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce
Exceeded only by banks and auto..
Ah, who am I kidding? Any management where the top exceutives earn that much more than their workers who create the company profits in the first place is fundamentally flawed. The CEO of BMW & Mercedes earn 18 times what the workers on the factory floor do. Toyota's CEO even less.
The CEO of Bank America (the best run Bank in America right now) makes 25 million dollars a year (his earnings are modest compared to those of CEO's of failed banks) .. tellers who work for him earn at or below poverty level salaries..
But airline management has a 20-30 year history of treating their employees like sith, "wage busting", union busting, and generally making employee life hell.But like I said, any more we should take to the tavern.
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce
Strange indeed..George Soros predicted 4 months ago of a world wide depression.
George Soros predicted 4 months ago of a world wide depression
His hedge fund probably caused part of the downfall by driving up the price of gas and driving down the value of banks. He is probably moving the markets to be able to pay himself 7.8m dollars a day in 2007. Yes that's 2.8b per year!
I would say his opinion is prejudiced.You get out of life what you put into it......minus taxes.
Marv
latest news from dataquick, S Cal home sales up 65% from year earlier! $350000 ave. sales price.
I saw that . Only problem is the sale price is 36% than a year ago.
They can't get your Goat if you don't tell them where it is hidden.
36% of what?
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce
36% less than a year ago, I think. I missed that percentage, in the article I read.
So in other words prices are probably pretty close to where they ought to be.
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce
You are correct , I was referring to the sales price versus a year ago. Sales appear to be generated by people either buying foreclosures or simply picking up perceived bargains. Plus there is an interesting comment in the article on the actual quantification of the sales in terms of just what they are.
They can't get your Goat if you don't tell them where it is hidden.
Yes there is, but as soon as the repos and usold new houses are caught up, maybe they will start building again.
First good news I have heard about housing!!
Edited 10/20/2008 6:46 pm ET by frammer52
AP this morning
The economy's health improved for the first time in five months in September as interest rate spreads, supplier deliveries and new orders strengthened, a private research group said Monday. The New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of future economic activity rose 0.3 percent, a better reading than the 0.2 percent drop expected by Wall Street economists... Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September, including the money supply and the index of consumer expectations."
They are still building new housing in Ft Myers. I was surprised but I know this company will not build until they have a real paying customer on the hook and that would be a 2008 contract. I assume they just lowered the price to twice what it costs to build, not 3 times.
""The September median stood 38.9 percent below the peak $505,000 median reached in spring and summer of last year."" Here is the story I read this morning. http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA081020.aspx
Edited 10/20/2008 6:42 pm by dovetail97128
No really, maybe he's just astute in the finance world. If I would have known about these sub-prime mortgages I would have told you the outcome..for real estate is cyclical and a downturn was sure to occur.
Frankly, I don't see any magic wand either. We've been 24 years getting into this credit mess and it's going to take more than a few months to climb out of it. My guess is that the economy will suffer for at least 5 years, if things are done right.
My fear is that whoever wins will take the easy way out and "stimulate" the economy out of this slump without changing the fundamentals (we're maxed out on our society's credit card and need to learn to live within our means). Then we could see recovery in 12-18 months, but we'll be right back in trouble again within 5 years.
DanH
I'm sorry but modern society doesn't work on a cash basis.
I'm talking modern as in the 20th & 21 century.
What in part caused the great depression was when all those banks lost so much money in the stock market they couldn't pay back the depositers. Those depositers had debts of their own.
What made Henry Ford successfull wasn't so much the use of the assembly line but the demand that created a need for an assembly line.. Selling cars for $5.00 down and $5.00 a week..
That led to a whole new burst of sales including radios and sewing machines and yes even houses!
With the depositers money not able to be accessed all that stuff was either repossed or simply turned into the creditors.. they not only couldn't keep selling as they had done but had excess inventory from repossesions. That in turn caused them to lay off workers and that added further to the problem..
Stimulation is the only way out of this mess and you are correct your savings are in danger!
Never said that society works on a cash basis. I said we have to work our way out of this debt hole. Big difference.
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce
OK
I'd love to get my mind around a workable solution that doesn't include massive inflation..
Economic problems can't be solved with social adjustment..
The change is too brutal for most to accept.. Good, smart run, growing businesses need both an influsion of credit and a customer base with the cash to buy their goods and services..
Paying off debts simply delays that process.
Yes we would be better off if we did however, time flies..
It's highly unlikely we could pay off our debt with the increasing loss of jobs within the less than 3 years of the election cycle. So as a result the economy would tank and those in power would be unlikely to get reelected.
(sorry for the political referances put clearly it is a factor, please note I mentioned no party or candidate by name)
Massive stimulation on the other hand solves the immediate problem at the cost of the future.. then as we inflate our way out of debt social change can be implimented..
(it's easier to take medicene with a spoonful of honey)
Like I said, take it to the Tavern.
Corporation: n. An ingenious device for obtaining individual profit without individual responsibility. --Ambrose Bierce