I read an article a while back about using an income projection worksheet to better track income and allow better management of expenses based on what you know is coming in. I am thinking of developing a simple system using Excel but I thought I would check and see if anyone here already does this and what method you use? Any suggestions? Feedback? Thanks in advance. DanT
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bump.
Dan,
I hope somebody who knows replies, 'cuz I'm interested too.
SamT
Dan, I remember an article in JLC a few years ago on income projection/cash flow management, and more recently something similar in Remodeling...sorry, don't have any issue #'s, and I am also interested in other guy's methods. My method is to try to keep the till as full as I can, not too scientific.
Mike
mike maines - "My method is to try to keep the till as full as I can, not too scientific."
Trying "to keep the till full"? What exactly does that mean?
On part of the dramatic change in mind set that I learned about that I just refereed to in my previous post was that one of the keys to improving cash was to keep Work In Process (which is the service businesses equivalent to Inventory) to a minimum. In short and in other words don't start something that you can't finish and get paid for promptly and don't start it until you are in position to do the work quickly and efficiently. Those are fundamentals of both Theory of Constraints and Lean Thinking production techniques.
While we work like the devil to keep our WIP to a minimum we do however also work like crazy to keep our "till" of potential new projects full. Was that what you were referring too?
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Jerrald, I'll be the first to admit I'm not good at the business of business, more the "technician who had an entreprenurial seizure". I've tried a couple of times to keep an employee busy and it didn't work out too well, so for now I am an independent finish carpenter and designer, usually subbing to GC's.
By "keeping the till full" I mean I try to be frugal, try to get paid as much as I can, work a lot, and try to keep some money in the bank. Very low-tech. I want to grow into a "real" business, I've read some of Goldratt's books and tons of other business books, go to JLC Live, spend a lot of time here and some at JLCOnline. I always appreciate your advice; you seem to be in a position similar to where I want to be.
I hadn't thought about WIP being the same thing as inventory, but it makes sense. It does directly contrast the usual ideal of having 6 to 18 months of work lined up, though. How do you resolve that?
Mike
Mike,
My guess is that Jerrald doesn't count scheduled work as WIP, But on the day work actually starts on a job, that job moves into WIP.
In inventory terms, I see sched'd work as "In the pipeline"
SamT
mike maines - "I mean I try to be frugal" Frugal is such a great word and concept as opposed to being "cheap". Being frugal means making smart choices when spending money as opposed to being cheap which means just spending as little as possible without considering the consequences. I love that word. My uncle was frugal, my dad was not so I think in my life being frugal was something I had to learn and perhaps I've learned it the hard way.
" I try to be frugal, try to get paid as much as I can, work a lot, and try to keep some money in the bank. Very low-tech."
I put an emphasis on "trying to keep some money in the bank" because while it obvious that you want to build up cash in the bank as a Operational Cash Reserve and as retained earnings (your take in profit) but it also relates to working lean in that you don't want to spend the money (and/or commit resources i.e. labor) to a project or task until such time as you know you can run that task or project through to completion.
Just the other week I violated our policies and procedures regarding keeping WIP low by starting work on some cabinet carcases and doors for a client where their project isn't even close to being ready for that kind of work. I put in two days of my time and purchased I think about $2700 worth of materials for a task that we wont be able to finish and get paid for for at least two to three months. I had some special extenuating circumstances and reasoning that drove my decision to start that task that I wont bother to get into here now but the point is I put a negative $4000 hit on our cash flow position for the next two to three months by starting work I knew I/we wouldn't be able to finish and get paid for promptly.
In terms of our cask flow it would have been wiser to keep that work lined up in Queue rather than pushing it into the realm of Work-In-Process.
"I hadn't thought about WIP being the same thing as inventory, but it makes sense."
Yup there are really three types of inventory a business can have: Raw Materials, Work-In-Process, and Finished Goods (work that completed but hasn't been paid for). Since all of those require an outlay cash the idea is to keep them to a minimum. The implications are incredibly obvious when you think about it but we often just don't think about it.
I can clearly remember the days when I used to think I was doing so great since we had these projects going on simultaneously all over the place.... not knowing I was flirting with disaster since I had so much cash out there as WIP and with precious little in the bank to keep the company fed and alive. Today I listen to guys bragging about how they are so busy with all these projects going on at the same time and I think to myself "what are you nuts or suicidal"? What they should be bragging about is the Queue of projects they have waiting to be started.
There's nothing wrong with having 6 to 18 months of work lined up (as long as clients are willing to wait that is) so long as that work isn't costing you money to keep it lined up.
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I appreciate all the input. I need to learn Excel as I am Excel stupid at this time.
The thing I keep finding in terms of cash flow is that I will think next month is strong because it is booked solid. So in my mind I can buy that $300 item and order some shirts etc. End of the month comes along, we've been busy and I'm low on cash. Now I keep 10k all the time as a cushion. So this is not an end of the world thing but I hate thinking I had no idea what was coming.
Anyway the end of the month gets here and I am low on cash. So I look at the coming month only to see it only has 2/3 of the days booked. Now I am worried. Get to the end of the month and hey! I have a cash surplus. Why? Because the work we were doing may not have taken as long but it was more profitable.
So like I said I read an article a while back dealing with this but couldn't remember the specifics. I have a general idea of what I will do but just wondered if anyone else had any thought.
Jerald thanks for the articles. I will read. Printer died so I will have to wait till tommorow to read on line. Doing the homeshow thing this weekend so I am running. Thanks again. DanT
One of the advantages of "cash flow manage" is the ability to do what I did when I owned TLGI. That is to have two checking accounts, one being an "Operating" account and the other one being what I called a "Financial Management" account.Simply put, you must devise a system do determine in advance of when expenses must be paid and when income is anticipated. The Financial account was a money market account where ALL monies went into. It also was where all reserve monies went. It accrued interest on a daily basis much better than any simple checking account. When monies were needed for example to cover payroll, due to subs on the 1st or 15th, monies were then transferred from the financial account to the operating account. With the Internet, this can now be done with your bank via the Net.Such a "system" forces you to become more aware of profits, loses on jobs, etc., and with a really good system you get into the habit of tracking job loses or profits on a daily basis simply be tracking your schedule - on track or not. Instead of just being frugal, one of the best articles I ever read was of a privately owned business owner who had positive net profits for something like 66 quarters consecutively, even with economic down turns. He pretended that his company was public and he was responsible to product quarterly financial reports to stock holders. It was strictly business for him. No pizzing away money on toys or frivolous stuff. Now that's frugal, and then some!
"It was strictly business for him. No pizzing away money on toys or frivolous stuff."
Lol. Well, while I appreciate the theory but new tools are one of the big reasons I do this. Couldn't buy a tool occasionally that I wanted I could just get a job. But thanks for he info on the two checking accounts. DanT
Dan, sorry, didn't mean to hijack your thread. Like you I try to keep $10k in my business account, but it will be there one week and the next it's way low. Better than the old days when instead of way low it would go negative. I would like to be able to forecast better though.
One thing I do know--learn Excel man! One of the single best tools the computer provides. There is so much it can do for you once you get up to speed! If I had to rank the top reasons the computer is a great invention, I would say The Internet, Spreadsheet (Excel), Word Processing, and Drafting. The rest of the programs out there are just gravy to me. Take a class if you have time, it's not that hard and you will be amazed at the time-saving and organizing it will help you with.
Mike
Jerrald, thanks for the clarification. I've worked for a lot of guys who love to start jobs, partly for the bragging rights, partly because it's more fun to start a job than finish one for ADD/construction types, and I think mostly because they need the money from the next job to pay for finishing the one that's almost done.
When I read, which one was it, The Goal?, where he talks about the bottleneck, I found the whole discussion very interesting but had trouble applying it to what I see every day. I thought my only bottleneck was the limits of my time, and when I've had employees who required too much supervision it just increased that bottleneck. I see that keeping WIP to a minimum, or in other words finish what you start before starting the next thing, would be great not just for cash flow but for customer relations as well. Each client would feel like they're getting your full attention, which will lead to better referrals instead of the string of disappointed customers I see a lot of these GC's generating.
Mike
There are two good JLC articles on the topic:
Methods for monitoring & improving cash flow
by Linda Case andWhile not specific to the building and remodeling industries there are also several good books out there on understanding and managing cash flow.
While it's an incredibly useful tool to have an Excel worksheet or some other kind of computer program that monitors cash flow that alone wont win the battle. Good cash flow management for many contractors generally involves a dramatic change in mind set to work. It certainly did for me.
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Edited 4/9/2005 12:51 pm ET by Jerrald Hayes
Dan,
I spent some time today roughing out a "Concept" spreadsheet. It works ok as long as you don't have any "Actual" entries after the "Today" column (In yellow) and don't expect too much from the "Difference From Previous Entry" row.
Basically, use the "Jobs Schedule" sheet to show projected cash flow for each of the two jobs. Fill in "Actual" flows before "Today." Use the "Fixed" sheet the same way.
With the use of "Smart" formulas, I can eliminate the need to show "Fixed" cash flow on the "Projected" sheet. Note that there is no Projected vs Actual on the fixed sheet.
Play around with the entries on the Jobs sheet. I raised the cost of cabinets and did not raise the prepay for them, I did raise the final pay to cover it. The GC had to use his CC (entered on the Fixed sheet) for additional capital as income. The payments on that charge ate him up, but without it he would have been out of biz the week before "Today." He shoulda looked at his Cash Flow before agreeing to the change order.
Moving the time the GC pays for the cabinets really effects the cash flow.
SamT
Edit: attachment in second next post. st.
Edited 4/10/2005 6:47 pm ET by SamT
Senior moment.
Yours is more on the total month spread sheet idea. My thought are to make a sheet for the month of June for instance. In the line labeled "Jones job" I then enter the amount of the job, anticipated expenses with that job and the estimated net income. Say the job was bid at 10k, with total expenses at 8k that lets me know my net for Jones job is to be 2k so I should have 2k in net income for that month.
In my business we do anywhere from 6 to 20 jobs a month. So unlike those of you that do a three month long remodel we may net 10k a month but from 18 different jobs and the next month net 12k from 4 jobs. Thus the issue I run into. Thanks for the input though. DanT
Dan,
That was just a concept attempt to show that each job has to be scheduled with all outlays and all incomes and the expected dates thereof.
A cash flow projection should have (all this is just my current opinion, mind you.) at least three layers of hierarchy; atomic, molecular, and structural. The atomic can be daily or weekly depending on how often you would input data. There is no sense making daily predictions if you are only going to look at the results once a week (I'm not sure about this ATT.) I would think the the atomic level should run 30 days or a quarter annum (daily/ weekly, respectively)
The molecular would be monthly and run for 12 months, the structural would be quarterly and run for at least 3 years.
The level of detail would, of course, get finer the smaller the time segments. I see the quarterly predictions used mostly to look at seasonal variations and economic trends.
The daily (The Job-Schedule sheet of the concept SS I posted) is the workhorse and requires the most time to input data. This data would have to come from the person who estimates and schedules the jobs. During the estimating process, all expenditures would have to be itemised, with the planned pay date lag listed. (I see why Jerrald uses PO's.) Then, during the scheduling phase, the amounts and dates would have to be entered into the cash flow planner.
Finally, for each job, you would have to go to the contract and extract the draw/payment dates and enter those into the planner.
The Fixed-Monthly, perhaps Fixed/Monthly would be better, would list things like rents, utilities, payroll, reserve funds, loan payments, etc. It would only have to be updated when hiring a new worker or starting and ending a reserve account, etc.
The report page (Projected-Cash-Flow) should be three (or more) pages; a daily, a monthly, quarterly, annual, and cycle (3-5 years) come to mind. Depends on what you want to think about, I guess. With MSExcel, Pivot Tables may be the way to do the reports instead of using a worksheet.
Two of the considerations are that jobs tend to overlap reporting periods and draw/pay schedules may extend before and after expenses.
I can see where each Cash Flow planning system will have to be custom designed for each business. In your case, (I'm guessing, don't forget,) I think a seperate input sheet for each job would be best. You probably only have one or two income instances per job, but multiple expenses. You could consolidate all job purchases into one datum or you could itemise them by some schema.
In my case, I see each job taking 5 weeks, but on a three week cycle. In other words, start a new job every three weeks, and each job will take 5 weeks calendar time to complete. Each job will have pretty much the same income and expense instances.
Dan, I would like to keep this discussion going because I have to build a cash flow system for my own new biz. I know we have two different styles and needs, but it gives me a better idea of what is needed in a planner if I have someone to bounce ideas off of.
Thanks,
SamT
Well Sam I'm a little bit confused. When you say "Play around with the entries on the Jobs sheet" you have me thinking you were going to post this spreadsheet here looking for some ideas, advice, and criticism on it. Did you post it somewhere else for download that I just don't know about?
Anyway in my own operation we use Purchase Orders to plan for our ordering of materials so we can use the dates on the prepared but not submitted POs to plan our job related cash flow requirements. Just one of the other benefits of using POs. I'll probably oneday integrate them into a "cash manager's dashboard". I like the idea of dashboard screens in programs that tell you how things are going and report to you what the state of your "engine" is.
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Dan T,
This is one of my pet peeves. Income projection.. Virtually all of my life I've been forced to do that sort of thing for some number cruncher. I sell a piece of equipment and they want to know how much profit they make.. (in your case you sell a job, not equipment)
Then when the figures that result are differant than those you forcast you are in error becasuse,......) doesn't matter if you make more or less the same lecture will result! I attempt to earn a fair profit whenever I sell something but sometimes things change.. Remidle a house and you expect to use a given cost and then the homeowner decides that they want these and not those.. Not much differance in cost so you don't bother with a change order.. Building the stair took twice as long and cost extra for material because somebody made a mistake, A late delivery caused a delay that to correct you needed to add a couple of extra guys. Income projections are now out the window..
Trust me with equipment it's exactly the same!..
Why do something that there is a great chance of it being wrong? Don't you do enough paperwork?
"Why do something that there is a great chance of it being wrong? Don't you do enough paperwork? "
I guess this is the difference between working at a business and owning a business. I can see where it would agravate you to have to answer those questions. And yes I do enough paper work.
However I am also responsible to myself and employees to manage my business in such a manner that they continue to recieve regular paychecks. And if I don't forcast my earnings to some degree and purchase a piece of equipment on a month where the cash doesn't cover it someone will be p*ssed.
I really don't care if I project an 8500 dollar month and end up with a 7900 month. I am concerned if I expected an 8500 month and wind up with a 6000 month. But what I am really concerned with is having some idea of the best times to incure unusual expensed or stocking extra material while the funds are available.
An example comes to mind. I buy my CELLULOSE insulation 100 bags at a time. Buying it on a short month would be foolish but on a month like I had last month it would be a good idea. And the way May is shaping up I will be smart to look at some stocking of that very item as I have a job installing CELLULOSE insulation and the month looks profitable. :-) DanT
DanT,
I completely understand what you are attempting to do and why, I am a commision salesman and untill the company is paid for something I don't get paid.. Many's the time I've had everything done, the check in hand with days to spare and when the comissions come out there isn't one for that piece..
One month I had well over $100,000 due in commisions and yet when my paycheck came out there wasn't enough to make my house payment! Internal delays were the reason given and I had no choice but to live with their decision.. Again that month I lived on the credit cards... They were all paid off as the commisons slowly were credited, and that's my method of money management..
My point is that particular company was a real stickler about doing the required paperwork and yet were extremely cavelier about commisions. Here I could point out the obvious about it flowing down hill, but I won't since it's so obvious!
I've worked for both types of companies and those who have unreasonable levels of paperwork seem to be just as badly managed as those who are far more cavelier. The main objection is that in the end there can be countless reasons why projections need modification. None of them have to do with management skill. (or time value of money) For example in your case if you get paid on the 5 th instead of the 30th, do you quit in a huff? Do you modify your purchase requirements based on every single payment? If you do then why go to the effort to write it down knowing that it is likely to be wrong?
My situation is honestly hard to understand from your perspective I imagine. I run my business on a cash basis. The only debt I allow myself is a short term line of credit if I have too many jobs happening at once and I finance my trucks but only one at a time. I carry no card debt even though that is our primary source of purchasing. (airline miles are a good thing)
I also do primarily small jobs. 3-10k is common for us. And our job duration is about 1-3 weeks. We get 10% up front to put someone on the schedule, 50% of the balance the day we start and the balance upon completion. We don't get the 50% when we show, we leave or wait for the money to arrive. I am very specific about getting paid and even carried that process on larger jobs although I might make it 4 or 5 payments.
Would I quit if I didn't get paid. Yep. I structure my contracts that way and expect to be paid accordingly. So it isn't that hard for me to figure out about what we will make and keep it reasonably accurate. And thus I can plan my purchases in advance according to cash flow. And still pay my bills and my staff.
I think it is a personality thing. I am a planner. I plan my week every Sunday morning. Does it all go as planned, never. But I still plan it. I don't feel like I am in my realm of control without doing so. In your business that would be tough to do I imagine. I am disapointed you didn't acknowledge my fun with insulation. Dant
DanT
So you've been trained to be a planner and I due to the nature of my career have been forced to be less of a planner and more of the sort of person who reacts..
Sure doesn't make you wrong and me right or visa versa.
I too plan as much as possible, If I failed I'd be criss crossing the state repeatedly to get to sales oppertunites. In addition I certainly quailfy my customers prior to the meeting.. I do a level of planning post sales and prior to payment but those plans are written very lightly in pencil.
Be very carefull about how you collect payment, You could expose yourself to additional taxes if you were to get paid all in one quarter and made your purchases in the next quarter (or year if you do your taxes annually)
RE insulation ?
I was needling you about your aversion to cellulose earlier is all.
As far as getting paid we work mainly small jobs, 2-10k generally. We do one or two a year in the 10-40k zone. I don't worry about getting paid. My contracts are set up so I collect NOW! I don't wait or worry about the tax issues as that is why I use an accountant. Let him worry about that portion of the deal. DanT
DanT,
you've got to start thinking of all the impacts that business decisions have and among them are the tax implications..
Almsot 3 Decades ago I had a sales manager teach me about the impact of tax considerations. Taxes aren't a simple amatter of letting someone else worry about them.. there are times when it's in your interest to get paid not now but next week or next month! There are times when it's in your interest to go into debt to buy stuff you may not need for a while. I have no doubt that if you focus consideration on the tax implications of cash flow you can improve your fincial condition a lot..
Let me ask you, would you do something if you knew that it would cost you much more than you make? That can easily be the result of a untimely payment or failing to purchase in a timely manner..
If you learn to take tax considerations as part of your normal business you may well wind up with 20 or 30% greater net yield.
"Let me ask you, would you do something if you knew that it would cost you much more than you make? That can easily be the result of a untimely payment or failing to purchase in a timely manner.. "
While I appreciate your concern I don't understand it. If you want to discuss tax avoidance and strategy start a thread. I own rental property. One of the best tax reducing methods on the North American continent. I understand taxes and their implication.
I further understand that since I don't pay a sales tax except on profit of goods in my state when I collect money is of no issue. I have discussed it in the past with my accountant. Not a co-worker. He is paid to make sure I am in my best light. My tax burden is quite low and my corporation tax is near nil. I won't bother to go into any further detail but trust me in the fact that I have the tax area covered and although I am sure you feel you are being helpful I feel as though you are prying into my financial areas that I don't wish to discuss further. DanT
Sorry DanT,
Didn't intend to pry.. if you already have a minimum tax burden then you probably are taking full advantage of timing issues..
I felt it worked well with your intent to do income projection since you stated that you were concerned about cash flow matters..
I will say that I take full advantage of timing with regard to my taxes. I'll frequently delay payment untill the next tax cycle or buy tax expensable things early to gain the tax benefit immediately.
I'll even go into debt to purchase future needs since the interest cost is deductable and the potential savings regarding taxes can more than offset the interest..
Edited 4/17/2005 10:30 am ET by frenchy
You are talking about a projected P&L while I am simply talking a quick overview. Something I can update weekly and do so in about 10 minutes. Accurate withing say 5% or so. That would do what I wanted. But I see your point. DanT
So what you basically want is something similar to an automated check register. Just enter a couple of pay ins and a few payouts. Would you also want your fixed monthlies in it?
I started on one today for practice based on jobs that had no more than 4 or 5 payins and around 10 payouts. The job entry pages were really cool I thought. A simple list of tasks that produced a plain vanilla Gantt chart for easy reference to schedule payouts, another list of payins and a final one of payouts.
I got called away because JET was in an accident. She's OK, but her car needs a few $$$$.$$ thrown at it.
I'm thinking that the Fixed payouts list would have 12 monthly columns but would only need to be updated when something major changes. Like a new truck.
The only other times any entries had to be made would be When a new job came online.
The report page needs no maintainance and can designed to show any period wanted.
SamT
Edit: Nothing mentioned after the accident is in this attachment. st
Edited 4/11/2005 9:27 pm ET by SamT
Dan
Now, this is coming from a comitted Excel guy...been programming in Excel for years, and I know it pretty well. But I'd offer this caveat..be prepared to spend a bunch of time leaning the basics...how to build simple equations, relative vs. absolute cell addressing, copy/pasting either formulas or values, number formatting, inserting, cell sizing, etc. And be prepared to spend a bit of time practicing and correcting. Its kinda like a video game, but if one isn't careful, you'll spend far more time at it then you'll actually get in value. That is, you'll tend to do things because its cool rather than particularly efficient and practical for your business.
Another way might be to use a simple written ledger that you model after some that you find and simply adjust it over time until you get a format that works for you, while gradually teaching yourself Excel. And then several months or a year or so from now, build your SS based on your ledger. Of course, the SS will do your math at the speed of light unstead of the speed of a pencil. Plus, its much easier to do 'what-ifs'.
BruceM
Dan,
These are examples of the spreadsheets I use to track income and expenses. They are written in "Works" not excell.
Invoice 1-A is a filled out example of the cost tracking invoice I use. The 2 critical numbers off of it are the total amount at the bottom of "My Total" column, ($263.14), and the amount of "Total Invoice", ($3,200.11). This invoice is for the Otis family renovations.
"Accounts Receivable" is another chart that tracks Work-in-progress. This chart gets all the critical numbers from all outstanding "Invoice 1"s for various ongoing projects.
Things to note from this one are the Lykos bathroom. They have paid the final bill and it has been deposited, but I have not paid all the suppliers yet. So it shows a negative "net to collect". The Piffin and Hilton projects were done with material from the shop. They are being billed for material but I do not have to pay a direct invoice for the material.
From the total of "net to collect" I am subtracting out the Otis family deposit of $4000. That money has already been deposited in my account, though to date the Otis Invoice 1 shows a total of $3200.11.
The critical number off of this chart is $6312.54.
3rd chart is "Accrued Expenses". These are costs that are budgeted for, but occur rather irregularly. In this instance I budget $100/month for tools. On Dec 31 I had $216 remaining from last year, so it is brought forward. Jan 1st I earmark another $100 for tools, for a beginning total of $316. I have no tool expenses in January so the end balance is $316. Feb 1st I earmark another $100, and so on until at the end of March I have spent $98 more than my budget will allow.
The number I am looking for off of this chart is the total of accrued expenses. (-$98+$132+$400=$434) That means on March 31 I have accrued $434 in overhead expenses that I have not yet paid. So if I have $3000 in checking, only $2566 is mine to spend.
So now we look at the checkbook balance that says $3000. $3000-$434=$2566. $2566 +$6312.54 = $8,878.54.
Is that $8879 yours? No. Part of it will be for next months regular expenses; salary, phone, utilities, cell phone, etc. And of course taxes must be paid on it also.(Another expense that is accrued and tracked)
But if next months expenses and taxes are allowed for and there is still money left over, then you have the option of stocking up on insulation if you want.
Don't know if this makes sense, but it has helped me to understand the flow of money through my business. Money in the bank doesn't have meaning unless it is filtered through cost tracking and accrued expenses. I have had $8000 in the bank and yet been insolvent, based on my expense projections.
Bowz, is there any way you could save your spreadsheets in a different format than wks? I have Excel and it won't open them, but they sound very interesting.
Mike
Mike,
The "Accrued expences" doesn't have any formulas written in it. I print it off at the begining of the year and fill it in with pencil, each month.
Bowz, thanks for the re-post. Those sheets look simple but smart. What you said:
Money in the bank doesn't have meaning unless it is filtered through cost tracking and accrued expenses
is what I'm trying to get myself to do. Hard to break old habits. Your spreadsheets are a good starting point.
Mike