LEDs could replace lightbulbs soon
How long before we see them throughout houses? What are the implications for wiring, design, etc?
http://news.com.com/2100-1008_3-6132427.html?part=rss&tag=6132427&subj=news
SAN JOSE, Calif.–Light-emitting diodes will become economically attractive as replacements for conventional lightbulbs in about two years, a shift that could pave the way for massive electricity conservation, according to a researcher.
Right now, consumers and businesses can buy a light-emitting diode, or LED, that provides about the same level of illumination as an energy-hogging conventional 60-watt lightbulb, Steven DenBaars, a professor of material science at the University of California Santa Barbara, said at the SEMI NanoForum, taking place here this week. A principal advantage of the LED: It lasts about 100,000 hours, far longer than the conventional filament bulb.
Unfortunately, the LEDs that can perform this task cost about $60, he said. (Prices vary on the Internet.) But prices have been declining by 50 percent a year, so two years from now the same LED should cost around $20.
“At $20 the payback in energy occurs in about a year,” DenBaars said. The rapid return on investment will occur in places such as stores and warehouses, where the light is on through much of the day. A year after that, LEDs will be even more economical for more places as costs continue to decline.
Approximately 22 percent of the electricity consumed in the United States goes toward lighting, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
To make matters worse, traditional lightbulbs are incredibly inefficient. Only about 5 percent of the energy that goes into them turns into light. The majority gets dissipated as heat.
If 25 percent of the lightbulbs in the U.S. were converted to LEDs putting out 150 lumens per watt (higher than the commercial standard now), the U.S. as a whole could save $115 billion in utility costs, cumulatively, by 2025, said DenBaars, and it would alleviate the need to build 133 new coal-burning power stations.
In turn, carbon emissions in the atmosphere would go down by 258 metric tons.
“Multiply that by three and you get the worldwide savings,” he stated. DenBaars then showed a picture of the globe at night. The landmass of the U.S. could easily be picked out by nighttime lights.
“We shoot a lot of light into space that doesn’t need to be there,” he noted.
Rising prices of electricity, combined with the antiquated nature of lightbulb technology, has prompted several start-ups and large industrial concerns to get into lighting.
Fiberstars, for instance, has come up with a way to replace hot fluorescent tube lights with light-emitting optical fiber in freezer cases in grocery stores. Hewlett-Packard spinoff Lumileds is also producing LEDs for a variety of applications.
LED technology is improving as well. UCSB has created an experimental LED that can put out 117 lumens per watt, while a Japanese company has developed one that can put out 130 lumens per watt.
Getting LEDs to produce white light that is tolerable to humans has also greatly improved. Manufacturers can do it two ways. One is to package red, green and blue LEDs in a way that the combined light shines white to the human eye. The other way is to make blue LEDs and coat them with a phosphor–a luminescent substance commonly used on fluorescent lamps.
Replies
We all know that we have to conserve energy. Most people buy 4 for a dollar light bulbs rather than energy saving bulbs. The LED's are the future. We have been using compact flourescents but have seen no significant drop in KW consumption.
Thanx for the heads up.
Chuck S
live, work, build, ...better with wood
Edited 11/3/2006 8:42 pm ET by stevent1
We've been using CFLs and have seen about a $20/month savings. Did some other things too, but I have to believe that the CFLs are responsible for half of that difference.The savings of LEDs over CFLs is not that great (especially considering the price difference). The savings of "high efficiency" incandescents over regular incandescents, is likewise miniscule.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
If a bunch of the 'feel good' state initiatives (as in WA) pass that mandate 15% "renewable" (hydro doesnt count in the WA initiative) energy by 2020 the power companies will be giving low consumption bulbs out for 'free' but the cost will be tacked onto the bill as part of the compliance. Right now PSE in Western WA gives away CFLs (rebate that covers the full cost of the lower priced CFLs). The state however still collects the full 9.4% sales tax on the 'fair' retail value.
The advantage of LED's over CFL's is that CFL's contain mercury. Here they're considered toxic waste, and can't go in the trash. They're also fragile glass tubes, and require more complex circuits to run them. If the price of LED's comes down, CFL's will be toast.
-- J.S.
I'll bet you the existing LED units contain lead.
People never lie so much as before an election, during a war, or after a hunt. --Otto von Bismarck
True, but isn't mercury a bigger environmental deal than lead?
-- J.S.
My employer's jumping in:http://www.hermanmiller.com/CDA/SSA/Product/0,,a10-c440-p225,00.htmlHaven't seen one yet, but I'm lustin' as it is. List price is steep - over $500, if I've heard right - but the office furniture industry has ludicrous pricing and discounting methods, so I have no idea how much people will actually be charged for them.did<!---->Cure Diabetes - Death Valley 2006!<!---->
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Did you know that if you can get a LED to 'laze' at close to 100% efficiency, they will put out more light energy than the electrical energy input? Where does the extra energy come from? By absorbing heat from the surroundings. Bell labs proved this in the 1950's and I wrote a EE paper on it in college in 1963. However, producing one that will run at such efficiency levels is very costly. The junctions have to be polished to something less than 1 micron flatness. But, we now polish silicon wafers to that order of flatness.
I'm still waiting on crystal storage for my puter. 1000 terabytes in a crystal the size of a cube of sugar with 1 nanosecond read/write time. 10 years ago they said it would be on the market in 10 years.
1000 terabytes = 1 bunchabyte. :-)
PlaneWood by Mike_in_Katy (maker of fine sawdust!)
PlaneWood
Pretty neat, and I see the marketing hook: "summer lightbulbs" ! light and air conditioning all in one package ! No expensive ductwork to buy or install !
PS: please don't rain on my parade with the laws of thermodynamics - they do not apply to marketing !
Edited 11/4/2006 7:39 am ET by r
Thermal load in low-ceiling buildings is a big problem and a lot of $ is wasted on cooling. Another great benefit of LEDs is that solar power/batteries can drive them. I would imagine the utilities are gonna hate these when they become cheaper. I want them NOW! My bills are getting stupid and my house isn't very big.
"I cut this piece four times and it's still too short."
I put a 3w luxeon star mr-16 spotlight on my bicycle as a headlight. It's crazy bright. I actually had to import them direct from Hong Kong, as they are near impossible to find here. I think they are taking over the general purpose lighting market some day. But I have heard the efficiency is not as good as cfl. I also have a mag-lite 3w bulb that is amazingly bright, also about $20. Available at your local WalMart.
I've got a Blackburn LED system for my bike. I'm not sure the watts are even quoted, but it's as bright as my old 6W QI unit and weighs much less. Of course, it wasn't cheap.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
LED light bulbs are already available for home use, although they are still pretty expensive. Here's one place selling them. http://www.theledlight.com/ I imagine as time goes on and manufacturing ramps up, the price will come down, and when you figure in their long lifespans they make more and more sense.
I've seen in the trade magazines where several companies are now selling LED street lights, and these days emergency and exit lights for commercial buildings often use LEDs. I've started using LED lamps for aircraft warning lights on top of water towers; they cost more than the old style incandescents but their 30,000 hour life more than makes up for it.
Certainly LED tail-lights on trucks are common, as are LED stoplights. The reliability is a big issue in both cases.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
Railway crossing lights are being gradually upgraded to LEDs.
traffic lights too...
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When they go to Bud and Miller Lites then there's going to be trouble.
seeyou invented litewhen in doubt add garlic
you bet...
Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming<!----><!----><!---->
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Forget the primal scream, just ROAR!!!
Dan's Data -- http://www.dansdata.com -- (browse thru the letters) has a lot of info on led lighting (some is for flashlights) that might be worth a look. (I am not associated in any way with this site or any of the products reviewed).
Saw one at hd (Canada) that was a cluster of ~12 lamps arranged in a cluster: desk lamp style. Seemed weak re light output vs a small halogen (20 watts @ 12 volt kind).
Also noted (brand unknown) a hockey puck style of display cabinet lighting. Very compact, no heat. Quite good illumination. In-store display run continuously for 5-6 months with no probs. Only drawback is that all lights must be on(or off). Adding switches to illuminate, for eg - only 2 or 3 modules (there are 6) drastically shortens their life as too much voltage is supplied. Seems rewiring or a lower-voltage power supply could correct but have not tried it.
We have LED "night-lights" through the house, while some of these are just a glowing panel, a couple of the newest ones are directional spots, and certainly bright enough to ligh you way for 20-30 feet even though the draw is in the milliamps range.
The problem with larger/clustered lights, or even our LED flashlights, is the temperature of the light and its native colour, if you though the older flourescent lambs distorted colours, wait 'til you see what a LED can do.
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Usually the glowing panel things aren't LEDs, but electroluminescent panels. Similar to what lights up liquid crystal displays.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
interesting, yet another option.
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Phill Giles<!----><!---->
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The main problem with electroluminescent panels is that they can't produce the intensity of light (lumens per sq in of emitter) required for most lighting applications. And they're quite a bit more expensive per lumen, so a wall of EL panels to light a room isn't really practical either.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
Looking at the spec-panel on the light (it looks like we have two such lights), a "mood light" that changes colour and acts as a night-light, I see that is uses far more than an LED, but less than the 3-7 watt incandescent night-light bulbs, Another light-panel I'm aware of looks like it might be a LCD panel
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Edited 11/9/2006 9:44 am ET by PhillGiles
3-7 Amp night light? That sounds awfully high. Don't you mean 3-7 Watt?
"I cut this piece four times and it's still too short."
Whoops. you're right, must have been real tired when I posted that one.
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Phill Giles<!----><!---->
The Unionville Woodwright<!----><!---->
I was just thinking that it would be pretty ironic for lights to dim when other lights were turned on.
"I cut this piece four times and it's still too short."
Despite all the warm and fuzzy press, the unbiased studies, etc... don't hold your breath.
The ads and press releases make you believe that a replacement for the common lightbulb is available. It is not. Nor are most of the other patterns shown in the pretty pictures.
For those that are available... experience here has proven very, very disappointing. LED's work fine for exit signs... and little else. They give but a tiny spot of light, and that at a very limited range.
Likewise, the "dimmable fluorescents are also, so far, a real disappointment. In this case, the problems seem to result from people's behaviour, rather than any specific technical issue. "Ergonomics," so to speak.
One advantage of LEDs is that they're a lot easier to dim (and in fact the dimming capability is essentially built in to the "ballast" by default). So when we get more generalized LED lighting it will likely include dimming pretty much from the start.
Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle. --Mahatma Gandhi
OTOH, with the proper lens, they can get the light to go wherever they want. The flashlights are very bright although in some cases, like when color codes need white light, they're too blue. Beats incandescent, though. I get tired of changing batteries and bulbs in my Mag Lites.
"I cut this piece four times and it's still too short."
LEDs won't replace incandescent or flourescent lights soon.
They're expensive, and they aren't terribly efficient when driven hard. Those luxeon LEDs that are used in bike lights are about as efficient as halogen bulbs.
So, if I read that math right, if 25% of the market spends roughly 30x on bulbs there's an 115 billion "savings"?
Sure does look like that 115 billion costs around 90 million if there are 150 million "homes" each with 12 60W bulbs and only 25% replace with $20 bulbs.
I'm for savings, I'm for cooler lamps--I just can't see a public already balking at $6 CFL's happily dropping a double sawbuck to replace a 65¢ 60w incandescant.
Yeah, but CFL's are such an obviously mickey mouse product.
The light looks weird with those spectral spikes in the green and blue. The balasts are complicated, and can only be manufactured with cheap third world labor. They may last a long time, but in an enclosed fixture, they may not last as long as an incandescent. They don't work with most dimmers. The twisted tube seems even more vulnerable to breakage than a glass bulb. And the price is an order of magnitude higher than incandescents.
If CFL's are $6, and an equivalent LED unit comes down to maybe $7 or 8, I'd sure get one or two to try out. Especially if they get the color better. Now they're way too blue, almost like mercury vapor. But their big advantage is that they mix red, green, and blue primaries. So, they can be tweaked to hit most any white point you might want. Incandescents are pretty much a true black body source, which is the only thing that could be better than a tristimulus setup.
-- J.S.
The CFLs they make now you can't tell from incandescent. We had a bathroom light that burned out that I thought I'd replaced with a CFL, but it was an incandescent. The matching light on the other side of the mirror WAS a CFL, but you couldn't tell the difference.
People never lie so much as before an election, during a war, or after a hunt. --Otto von Bismarck
I can generally tell, especially if I have familiar objects to go by. When I'm not paying attention, sometimes I get a strange feeling that the light is somehow both brighter and dimmer than it should be. Looking at colors, or just looking at the bulbs, those cases turn out to be flourescents.
Another thing to try is a little impromptu ultra cheap relative spectrophotometry. Just use diffraction on a junk DVD to spread the wavelengths out, and look at them. The difference between the smooth black body distribution of incandescents and the quantum spikes of flourescent is pretty obvious.
-- J.S.
The main difference I notice is that the CFLs are a bit on the dim/grey side when they first come on. After 30 seconds or so I can't see a difference.But, oddly, this is with cheapie bargain pack CFLs from HD, et al. I've several times noticed that the more expensive units you pay $4 or so far seem off-color. So if you don't like the way CFLs look, try the cheapies.Of course, there are a few folks who are hyper-sensitive to fluorescent colors. If that's you then you might want to try a "super-expensive" "true color" unit. Ott-Lite makes the supposedly best (and most expensive) of these, frequently used by sewers and artists so assure true color rendition.
People never lie so much as before an election, during a war, or after a hunt. --Otto von Bismarck
Here's a load of good info on flourescents and color. These KinoFlo units are used a lot for movies and TV, where color is extremely important. They're optimized for the camera, not the eye, however.
http://www.kinoflo.com/FYI/FAQs.htm
-- J.S.
But it's the fixtures that make the video lights realistic (special ballasts, boosted curents, over-voltage), put those bulbs into a kitchen fixture and they're even flatter than the regular "warm" bulbs from HD. Try "grow" bulbs mixed in with an array of warm/cold bulbs
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Phill Giles<!----><!---->
The Unionville Woodwright<!----><!---->
Edited 11/9/2006 9:51 am ET by PhillGiles
Several here have helped make my point: LED's are nothing but hopes, promises, and disappointments TODAY. Sure, there is always "tomorrow." I've heard that song before (fuel cells, alternative energy, oil substitutes....). When the product actually IS perfected, I'll deal with it. Otherwise, if I want 'faith,' I'll go to church- not the hardware store.
Heck, tomorrow we won't need the LEDs -- the sun will be out.
People never lie so much as before an election, during a war, or after a hunt. --Otto von Bismarck
Another thing to try is a little impromptu ultra cheap relative spectrophotometry. Just use diffraction on a junk DVD to spread the wavelengths out, and look at them. The difference between the smooth black body distribution of incandescents and the quantum spikes of flourescent is pretty obvious.
but make shore you calibrate your redundant snarfinator first <G>
Yeah, but CFL's are such an obviously mickey mouse product.
Which, sadly, seems to always be the case with things that are required because they are "good" for us.
Lighting is such a subjective thing; and a learned one, too. If you grew up in a kitchen with a single, centered, incandescent fixture--you just know that nothing less than a 100W lamp won't "do." And, like as not, in that old kitchen, that's true; and with bad shadows and glare still remaining.
But, that's the color & lumen level that people have in their heads when they imagine kitchens. It's more than passing hard to get them to "see" anything else without building it.
I'm glad I don't have to use CFR by regulation--I like being able to choose the best locations for the lamps. I also happen to like dimming for variable light levels, too.
I'm just always suspect of national math that seems to presume all lamps, too.Occupational hazard of my occupation not being around (sorry Bubba)
But if you then factor in lifespan, the savings are much greater. In a quick search, reported lifespans of LED's are between 50k and 100k hours. And regular incandescent, about 850. For our purposes, I'll skew to higher for the Incan, and lower for the LED.
at 50,000 hours, the LED has roughly 50 times the lifespan of an incandescent lasting 1000 hours. I've copied the table below to make the full comparison:
Life Span & Energy Consumption Benefits of LED Light Bulbs vs. Incandescent Light Bulbs
View Image
Incandescent 60 Watt Light Bulb
View Image
CC Vivid 2 Watt LED Light Bulb
Life SpanHow long will the light bulb last?
1,000 hours
Up to 60,000 hours
Number of bulbs usedover 60,000 hour period
60
1
Bulb CostPer 60,000 hours
$40.20(60 bulbs at 67¢ each)
$34.95
Electricity UsagekWh of electricity used over 60,000 hours
3600 kWh
120 kWh
Cost of Electricity60,000 hours at 10¢ per kWh
$360.00
$12.00
Total CostAfter 60,000 hours
$400.20
$46.95
Total Savings:Money saved by installing one CC Vivid LED Light Bulb
Save $353.25 Per Bulb!
table courtesy of : http://www.ccrane.com/lights/led-light-bulbs/index.aspx
Seems to make sense to me. Remember to think long term. I agree, it's a lot of money to shell out now. But in the end, its way cheaper.
Here's this on top of it. with the lower wattage, you can have many more lamps on a single switch. On a 600 watt dimmer, I can have 12 50 watt bulbs on a switch. But at less than 2 watts per lamp, I can theoretically put 300 led lamps on the same switch. No longer having to shell out more money for higher wattage, or split up a room, or use some kind of relay. When I get to it, i plan on replacing with LED's.
Remember to think long term. I agree, it's a lot of money to shell out now. But in the end, its way cheaper.
Long term is fine. It's even fine that they are quoting their $60 bulbs versus standard-life PRC-made 60W lamps, and not readily available 3000 hour bulbs.
I'm skeptical of gross numbers is all. I dropped a decimal place before, it's 600 billion to buy the lamps to "save" the 115 billion--which makes for a much longer buy-back than stated. LEDs have a huge potential, I just don't think they do today. Get the lamps down to $5-10 each, that's different. I'm just afraid that this will become another mandated by government "fix" that will never force the maunfacturers to get better under consumer demand.
Here's this on top of it. with the lower wattage, you can have many more lamps on a single switch. On a 600 watt dimmer, I can have 12 50 watt bulbs on a switch.
Well, I can and I can't. The room, the lighting scheme, determines the number of switched lamps, not the lamps themselves. (Remember that new, blank-page, lighting is only about 1/3 the market.)
But at less than 2 watts per lamp, I can theoretically put 300 led lamps on the same switch.
Ok, I'm mentally still coping with bringing the client that $6000 bill for just lamps on that circuit <g>; let alone the smiles at the supply house after buying all those fixtures . . . <g>
Occupational hazard of my occupation not being around (sorry Bubba)
According to my figures, it WILL COST YOU $967.45 MORE to use the LED light.That LED light puts out 31 lumens.A 60 watt bulb 840.It takes 27 of the LED's to get the same light.
WILL COST YOU $967.45 MORE
Does that include the $19 difference in price for the lamps too?
<g,d,r>Occupational hazard of my occupation not being around (sorry Bubba)
I hate to tell you, but people don't THINK long term. They don't think any farther than the price tag on the shelf at wally world.Since people can't SEE any electrical savings, they don't really exist. (In the mind of the consumer)Your 60,000 hour life span is over 41 YEARS assuming the bulb is left on 4 hours a day. I don't figure the bulbs are all that likely to last that long before they get broken by getting bumped/dropped or the fixture gets replaced. So I don't see the LEDs as being a big deal unless they come way down in price.
Americans have the will to resist because you have weapons. If you don't have a gun, freedom of speech has no power. [Yoshimi Ishikawa]
The reasons why this probably won't happen.
1. The rport is BS, less than 10% of electricity consumed in this country is used in residential lighting, inside and outside lighting included.
2. A $20 60 watt light bulb? The price drop estimate of 50% a year is as exagerated as the 25% claim. Wishful thinking at best, out right deception more likely.
3. The ficticious and overblown saving potential is based on the two lies above, plus the biggie, 150 lumens per watt, yet to be acheived in a laboratory, and commercial viability is going to be decades away.
4. The greatest savings potential is in applications (i.e. high bay fixtures) that already have lamps that substantially more efficient than any of the BS examples quoted by the illustrious Steven DenBaars.
5. People that take the leap of faith and shell out the cash, if they do so based on the unrealistic claims of Mr. DenBaars, will not see results anywhere close to the claims and will then cry "foul" and rightfully so.
This person may be a professor of material science at the University of California Santa Barbara, but appearantly flunked out of engineering school himself. Heck, if you can't actually DO it, might as well teach it, right? If I had presented evidence like this to support of a technical position in a sophmore undergraduate engineering school lab, I would have recieved an F. He should too. Shame on Mr. DenBaars for presenting such poorly substantiated and obviously exagerated garbage as real scientific information. He does have a great future in global warming research, I would venture.
OTH, aside from my critique of the hack posing as a scientist to get his name published, I am all for finding better ways to save energy and use it more efficiently. I have heard and read great things about LEDs and see them having a bright (pun intended) future. We can extol their virtues without resorting to unsupoorted exageration. I wonder what kind of saving potential a competent scientist would predict?
Edited 11/9/2006 12:17 pm by Tim