Hi all,
I’ve got 15 years carpentry experience, 10 years residential. (First five years as a scenic.) I’m doing well here in NY, started with high end finish and cab install but here in the land of Money Is No Object, people pay me the same rate to take it from frame to finish, including-I hate to admit it-paint.
Long and shortish of it, my girlfriend and I are getting ready to leave NYC and head some place we can raise kids and live in more than our current 400 sq ft. Portland has come highly recommended and might fit in better with our backgrounds-Denver and Ann Arbor. Thing is, watching the news and seeing the housing market tank, I wonder if it is foolish to move outside of the NY area (there will Always be rich people who want to spend money here…).
Hoping to get some general ideas about the state of the industry there and how you all see it panning out.
Thanks,
D Wood
Replies
I left NJ in 77 never regretted it but miss the folks, Better place to raise kids, Portland is very nice and there may still be a lotta work there, not sure i live on the coast, main thing i found out is theres so much to do here outdoors but no good pizza or talyor ham or canolies.
well until dovetail comes in I'll have to do this
Don't come. Rain.......Lots of it. mudslides........Trees down.......maybe a touch of malaria too
;-)
Pdx is doing Ok. Probably better than most of the rest of the country. But Seattle just had the first year over year decrease in pricing. So we may be at the tail end of it. We do mainly residential new construction. About 15-20% remodels.
I made a comment the other day that we have probably 10 houses going over 5k SF. That's a bunch for us. Usually have 2-3 going. So whoever has it is spending it
Rest of the market seems to be going along OK. Pick up 2 here, 3 there and 5 somewhere else. And most builders have been doing presolds only. So these probably aren't specs. Unless it's a sale fail.
Bend/Central Oregon IS depressed. But they had a great big run up the last few years. Going to be a slow winter/next year over there.
You have to sell a place and buy a place. Now is probably a good time to buy.
(Do I sound like an HBA ad????)
What is a Scenic?
Theater construction? I don't know much about that
it's always tuff to get going in a new area
good luck
edit: Foundation guy in the office next to me just hired 4 on. Strange time for it. But he's got some coming in
Edited 11/12/2007 9:38 pm ET by Scrapr
Scrapr about covered it.
Nasty weather, constant mud, Portland and up the gorge is unlivable during the winters east winds, nothing but libs, bicyclists and latte drinking back to the landers out here.
( OOPs just saw your from Ann Arbor, I swear that the state is filled with redneck ,beer swilling, gun toting, conservative, fundamentalist expats from NJ. They ain't bad folks cept for their love of rotten whale carcasses.)
;-)
Oregon is still going, not strong , but going. Apprehension is what I hear and see more than anything, people pulling their horns in and not making any risky moves. Big builders are selling at discount, holding off on any new starts till things sort themselves out.
But ... This state has historically been behind the rest of the country in economic downturns affecting the housing market.
Historically going into them we run 6-12 months behind, coming out 12-18 mo.
I have been away from the residential market for 6-7 years now myself , what I see and hear from buddies is what I have related.
Commercial right where I live is going strong. The city I live in is 40 SW of Portland, and has been a very strong growth market in the last several years. Again though this city is a bit unique and always has been when it comes to construction. It has been the shoals for more than one bigger builder from out of town. Portland seem to be doing Ok with commercial, although the condo craze is turning into an apartment craze because of lack of demand for the condos.
Union is looking for carpenters right now I know that . 98% commercial work though .
Just bring your rain gear when you come, if you don't work in the rain you don't work out here.
Oh yea and wait till I find a job would ya.. I just got laid off a week or so ago.
LOL
Yep - all that bad stuff.
And, and, sleeping sickness!
Yeah - they even made a movie about it. Wait - maybe that was Seattle?
Nah, everything I hear about it is good - from here, anyway.
Forrest - rainless in Atlanta
Thanks a million everyone, that is just the stuff I was looking for. I guess its always a shot in the dark every time you pull up stakes.
The condo craze-into-rental "craze" is happening out here as well. Anyone who could buy a lot or two pushed everything over and built 5-6 story condos, all of them for the $750-$1000/sqft market. The weak dollar has kept sales to Europeans and the Chinese going, but it looks like everyone over there may already have a second place over here at this point. We've started doing some commercial stuff that makes sense for us, smaller spaces with high design and/or technical requirements. Computer graphics studios, fashion designer showrooms, etc.
There is still money and work over here, but we'll see after the first of the year. It looks like the Wall Street Christmas bonuses are going to be smaller this year and those poor fellas account for something like 25% of our economy.
Thanks again for the info, I appreciate you all swallowing hard and giving a stranger in your own industry the benefit of your experience. Not everyone would do that.
Now where'd I leave those quinine pills....?
Buy yourself a volvo put a kerry sticker on it, Get yourself one of those french silly hats come here on the north coast and i will hook you up with my commie pinko friends, After a week you must say you dont know me as im the only neocon in this Workers Paradise, Also lose the new Yawk accent, But we do work in the rain and although it sounds easy its very hard on a cold day, It cuts right to the bones, I really think it was better to work back east in the winter at least the sun came out, Here on the coast theres a lot of work for a good hand, But houses are very expensive here now, Average home in my town is around 750000 A fixer upper starts at 250000, 3ooooo if you can find one. Stop in Portland first and take a trip to the coast and call me if you need to know more,
"with our backgrounds-Denver and Ann Arbor"
I'm so sorry about the Ann Arbor thing. It must be embarrassing to admit it.
But my suggestion is one of two places:
East Lansing for rehab, or Denver. There are spots of weakness, but the high end burgs are holding their own.
East Lansing?!!! FKA Blue (eyeddevil)
Where all good people come from!
Go Green!
First BB game tonite!
Edited 11/13/2007 6:33 pm ET by peteshlagor