This summer I’m going to need 125 sheets of 1/2″ 4×8 Struct #1 plywood to re-sheath my house. So, I’m wondering if now is the best time to buy, or will the market dip in the next couple months? All kinds of speculation and reasoning are welcome, I won’t blame anybody for guessing wrong…. 😉
— J.S.
Replies
as I said to the ladt just last week ...
yesterday was the cheapest day to build your addition ... it's not gonna get any cheaper ... ever.
Jeff
Buck Construction
Artistry In Carpentry
Pittsburgh Pa
yesterday was the cheapest day to build your addition ... it's not gonna get any cheaper ... ever.
I like this. I'd love to see this being used in marketing in my line of work and teach consumers to sometimes pick their battles (like me, right) and just pay the sandman and be done with it.
Its funny that we never question what a pair of jeans cost, but could you imagine the uproar if Levi started marketing that phrase and every quarter raised their prices by 15-25%? :)
If I had the cash to buy it now, I wouldn't. But I might take that cash in stick it in the bank, let it earn a little interest. If prices creep up, you should be covered, if they drop, you'll be ahead. Either way, you won't be tripping over a stack of plywood for the next six months, fretting over whether or not you made the right move. My gut says it might come down a little, but probably not much. Of course there's about 10 reasons why it might spike again, Greenspan retiring, Oil prices continue to rise, seasonal construction ramping up, a butterfly flaps it's wings in the Amazon rainforest, etc.
I have read competing theories on this.
One is that when rebuilding down south really ramps up, panel prices will surge.
Another is that panel prices will fall because housing starts will be on the decline.
In late 2004, when sheet good prices got really high, I was starting a new custom and needed several units of 1/2", 5/8" and 3/4 plywood; I contacted three suppliers (which I have a good history with) and asked them to call me if and when prices dropped below a certain threshold.
As it turned out, there were some brief downturns in prices and I got most of the plywood at, IIRC, $4 to $5 a sheet less than where the prices were hanging for several months.
Might give it a whirl.
I should add, you have a better chance at this if you can purchase units....if you don't need that much, you can probably sell the excess and make a friend or a few bucks.
If any of you use a lot of plywood, have the equipment to handle it, and the space to put it, ask your supplier(s) about a direct ship load. They buy a semi load of ply and have it shipped to you. You unload it and store it yourself. You can save some money that way. But they'll probably want you to pay for the stuff when they do. Mills typically want their money 10 days after the truck leaves the mill. And you always run the risk that prices will go down a lot, leaving you with a lot of high-priced inventory. And you have the cost of carrying inventory.
The taxpayer; that’s someone who works for the federal government, but doesn’t have to take a civil service examination. [Ronald Reagan]
Well, I went and bought it. $13.99/sheet from HD was the best price out here.
-- J.S.
I just got 60 sheets of 1/2" CDX, not Struc-I but the usual 4-ply crap that we always seem to get around here, about $14.50 per sheet. That's a really low price for this location, and I've paid over $20 for it within recent memory.
Edit: the things that have been horribly expensive lately are the plastics and metals. Had to buy some 1-1/2" and 2" PVC conduit and nearly went into shock. Also getting ready to buy some steel roofing and will probably need to put in an IV and take some sedatives before I read the quote.
Edited 4/11/2006 9:22 pm by davidmeiland