When do you think this “New Economy” will reach us and …
Resurrecting a topic I started here back in the days of the old WebEx forum software here (Aug 10, 2000 ) I asked the question:
I was reading today in an article found on the HousingZone web site: “The residential remodeling industry now rivals home building in size, generating expenditures of about $l50 billion a year and accounting for about 2% of gross domestic product. (GDP)” and while the rise of remodeling in and of itself to challenge home building is very interesting what is got me to think and wonder about was this. Why do you all think it is that such a large segment of our GDP and economy has remained relatively untouched by the technologies and new business models of this “New Economy”?
It seems today that the news is full of stories about this and that dot.com company making inroads in all sorts of businesses except ours and most of these business segments that we read about are small compared to the building and remodeling markets piece of the total GDP (4.9%).
Do any of you have any particular insights of opinions as to why we are so far behind or do any of you see there something coming over the horizon that rest of us just don’t see yet? Who is going to lead the changes in this next century? Is it going to be the big business material manufacturers or the big builders or coalitions and communities of smaller contractors (smaller contractors which happen to be the largest component of the industry)?
Any ideas? When do you think this “New Economy” will reach us and what will it look like when it gets here?
Well since then we’ve been through the dot com bust and technology seems to be on the rise again and yet it still seems to me like our industry lags behind all the others in terms of adopting technology. For example in just hanging around here I’ve been amazed at just how many legal pad estimator there are out there so what is going on? Why are we (as a group) so behind the times.
The last five year our sector or the GDP has been going on like gangbusters and holding the economy together and yet the way we do things is still primitive is more just like the way our fathers did things than it is different.
On the The Arizona Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing (AzPath) website there is a poster entitle
The Industry That Missed the Industrial Revolution
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Reiterating again the questions I put forth back then:
- Why do you all think it is that such a large segment of our GDP and economy has remained relatively untouched by the technologies and new business models of this “New Economy”?
- Do any of you have any particular insights of opinions as to why we are so far behind or do any of you see there something coming over the horizon that rest of us just don’t see yet?
- Who is going to lead the changes in this next century?
- Is it going to be the big business material manufacturers or the big builders or coalitions and communities of smaller contractors (smaller contractors which happen to be the largest component of the industry)?
- When do you think this “New Economy” will reach us and what will it look like when it gets here?
A 1999 Builder Magazine article entitled Nothing But Net mentioned:
Another study, “The Internet and the Building Industry,” released by Salomon Smith Barney in October 1999, projected that within three to five years “the Internet will handle virtually every aspect of the home building process, including the purchase of materials, scheduling of labor, marketing of homes, choice of options, and origination of mortgages.”
That very obviously didn’t happen and I mentioned back then I thought that was unrealistic but I’m not even sure that we can say today that in three years most of us will be using the internet that way or even general desktop technology.
That never really happened in those next three years (2002) and still hasn’t hit us today so really, what’s taking us so long?
Replies
Jerald,
I'm not good at answering things like this without a lot of thought but.........
We're still cavemen at heart! Ruler, pencil, saw hammer!
There are larger companies out there that are accepting and using the technological advances available because they can afford to.........and there are HUGE companies like Toll Bros. etc who will just sub every thing out to cavemen. As to whether the industry as a who;e is technologically stagnat I don't think so.
I think one of the illnesses of the building industry in general is that it is way too production driven. Yeah, lets just stop what we're doing to develop. learn and teach some new technology to these cavemen types. Little guys working out of a pich up just can't do it financially I think.
You put forth good topics for discussion however; I think sometimes you try to cover too much and might be better off breaking things down to bite size pieces. i would not have a problem conversing on multiple aspects of a diverse topic, but going about it in a forum is painful for me.
Eric
Eric- "You put forth good topics for discussion however; I think sometimes you try to cover too much and might be better off breaking things down to bite size pieces. i would not have a problem conversing on multiple aspects of a diverse topic, but going about it in a forum is painful for me."
Geez Eric I don't know what to do. I still have a copy of that old discussion on my hard with all 73 posts so I'm thinking I did really break it down into a small intro piece.
As for:
" I think one of the illnesses of the building industry in general is that it is way too production driven. Yeah, lets just stop what we're doing to develop. learn and teach some new technology to these cavemen types. Little guys working out of a pich up just can't do it financially I think."
I'm not so sure about production driven being a problem in fact I see the dearth or total lack of production focus on the part of so many contractors as something the really hurts us. I do think we have to teach the "cavemen" how to use the wheel and I done just that with many of the contractors we work with. Frustrated with having to translate and transcribe pencil on legal pad estimates that were getting faxed to me I created and small simple estimating program in FileMaker pro that I distributed to the subs we worked with and they then sent me e-mails with the data I needed and wanted and I could import it directly into the parent system we had running both so that I could use it right away and it was stored in a database for us to use in future estimates too. That simple application eventually evolved into the 360-Trade Contractor Estimating solution that we now market as a real product to other contractors.
As for Little guys working out of a pich up just can't do it financially I think." I think it more that were approaching a point in time where the little guy can't afford NOT to embrace technology. I mean how much does it really take. Just a few hundred dollars to get started. Geez the National Construction Estimator program comes along with the $49 purchase price of a data book and yet so many contractors still don't even take that step.
I think there is something about technology that scares or intimidates most contractors.
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I was in the door biz. Therma-Tru. Very high volume, shipping to mostly two-step distribution like Brosco. We shipped components, meaning door slabs, lites, frame and sill parts, hinges, etc., everything required to build prehung exterior doors. The prehanging distributors in turn book orders from the lumberyards and sell the doors all set up. Like you buy them.
In the back office at Therma-Tru, a large team of customer service reps deal with the mountain of faxed orders that stream in daily from customers, interpreting their language and part numbers, and converting it into in-house part numbers for order entry. They are on the phone all day with accounts, shuffling orders, feeding back ship status, making changes, and making a lot of chat.
Out at places like Brosco, the same thing is going on in the back office. A huge team of inside CSRs is dealing with the daily fax paper grind, and having telephone conversations to take orders, interpret orders ("what do you mean by that?"), and get everything understood and entered into their own system of part numbers and codes.
The job I held last at Therma-Tru was CIO . . . chief information officer. One of the big things we had as a project back before the dotcom meltdown, was to try to put together a web-based supply-chain business system to ease the pain of all the transaction processing, outbound from us, down through the lumber yards, maybe even to the builder customers.
The whole project never got off the ground.
Bob Dylan "....The whole project never got off the ground."
That's too bad but sort of typical. Do you have any observations or ideas on just why the effort failed? There is a ton of information out there on the web looking at and analyzing why IT projects have failed since the failure rate across all industries not just building and remodeling is so high (over 50%).
Notable to our industry was the colossal failure and collapse of BuildNet. Do you recall that boondoggle?
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so what's wrong with legal pads?
Don't ya realize that high performance computer sitting in front of you .... only does what you make it do?
Computers and/or software are vastly overrated.
Not like they use artificial intelligence and think this stuff thru for ya ...
We're not exactly to the level of having the Jetsons maid do all the housework yet.
Just another dumb box sucking up electricity ....
Little story ... went to look at a "conversion" of a 100+ year old hog pen ... to be converted into an artists studio .... the goal .. a semi comfy space ... that retains as much of the "charm" as possible ...
needs a new foundation and floor .... for starters ...
my foundation guy comes ... walks thru out ... looks and pokes ...
then says ... "Hell .. I don't know ... $22,500.
I'll make it work somehow....."
Find me some computer program that'll estimate that job better than an educated guess. He don't even know what's in and under there till he's dug 3 ft down ....
come to think of it ... he didn't even have a yellow legal pad!
Jeff
Buck Construction, llc Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry
Yeah and I wouldn't hire that guy.
I had sub do that with me too and when I actually put their numbers down on paper (for this one particular paint job I needed on a project we did) I saw numbers from $4000 to $16,000 where the three guys who actually had a method other than the "look at it and think" method came up with prices around $10,000 that were all right in the same neighborhood.
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"in a paper driven management system the sharing of information isn't as great as it would be in a good digital system because each person develops there own filing methods instead of sharing a company wide common standard and no one knows where to look for data and records. "
I was describing my last job, where there were 4 PMs including me, the production manager (our supervisor), three salespeople, the office manager and her sidekick, and the owner. And two designers.
We used Master Builder for estimating, job costing, payroll, and so on. It completely unified the office around those variables. At any time I could see any estimate for any job by any salesperson and compare it with hours turned in by any carpenter and bills submitted by any sub or vendor and check those numbers against any subcontract or any budget for any job. All at your fingertips. Like the kid says in the Dodge hemi commercials, SWEET!
Then look at the stuff on paper--proposals from subs, notes from job meetings, job photos, RFIs from designers, specs from vendors, etc. All that stuff was kept individually by the PM for the job it related to. I had a groovy system of color-coded hanging binders with printed tabs for every job, trade, and topic, so it was easy for me to look up my own stuff, but the other PMs did it differently, some in their laptops, some on cocktail napkins. There were lots of times when I wanted a piece of info from one of those PMs, and it's a crapshoot finding info in someone else's files. No uniformity, and you actually have to get off your butt and go disrupt them or search their office.
The difference in ease of access to the two types of info was huge. If we had somehow digitized documents, or never had them on paper in the first place, it would have been better. I can easily see a database with a uniform set of categories where everything goes. That way, if I want to look in one of Joe's files for some info I know he has from a plumber on setting up a recirc loop using a tankless heater, I can hit some keys and start reading it. If I have to interrupt him or search his office, I probably won't get as far.
The major obstacle would be getting everything digital. You'd try to get everything emailed, nothing faxed or mailed.
Edited 5/28/2004 12:10 am ET by davidmeiland
Some things are changing. All over the country I'm seeing places where all inspections are scheduled and tracked through the internet. And many, many products can be bought that way. I betcha there'll be jobs in the future for on-line specifiers who help clients sort through and purchase all the crap they need in the house (appliances, fixtures, finish materials, etc). I'm doing all designs via email/internet, and clients get the software online to do their own walk-throughs and virtual realities.
It always takes awhile to sort out the useful from the not useful, but something like online inspection scheduling/history is a perfect example of something that improves on its predecessors. Hated waking early to reach inspectors before they left the office, or missing the narrow window and losing a day.
Jerrald I have worked for a guy who is tech addict and it seems to occupy a 1/3 of his time and if he loses his pda or his computer crashes he is at a total loss as to whats going on.
What I like about pen and paper is it is durable ,easily replaceable and 0 learning curve.You are not dependant on a machine and there is something to be said for the thought process involved with writing and thinking at the same time that is missing in the typing on a computer.
But I do like the the tracking abilities of a computer and the instant communicating with E-mail and the ability to send or scan drawings and pictures.I see our industry progressing towards electronic communication as a good thing.
ANDYSZ2
I MAY DISAGREE WITH WHAT YOUR SAYING BUT I WILL DEFEND TO THE DEATH YOUR RIGHT TO SAY IT.
Remodeler/Punchout
Yeah ANDY there are those guys out there that are tech junkies and try every new gadget and program out there and get nothing done but I don't think they anywhere near a significant number. And as for " his computer crashes he is at a total loss as to whats going on" they should all get Macintoshes running OSX and that kind of stuff just wont happen. Seriously though (even though I am serious about Macintosh reliability and stability) a contractor should get a dedicated stable business system up and running and not tinker with it if they are on the Window platform and get down to the business of contracting rather than playing around with software and hardware.
Also I was talking with another contractor this afternoon and he was saying to me that in a paper driven management system the sharing of information isn't as great as it would be in a good digital system because each person develops there own filing methods instead of sharing a company wide common standard and no one knows where to look for data and records. (Do I have you correctly on that David?)
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>>Do any of you have any particular insights of opinions as to why we are so far behind or do any of you see there something coming over the horizon that rest of us just don’t see yet?
The thing that popped into my head unbidden, without consideration, (so, it's either right or so far out in left field, that it's just fantastic,) is that our industry is as old as Man, and with age comes conservatism. Extreme age = extreme conservatism.
SamT
"Why do you all think it is that such a large segment of our GDP and economy has remained relatively untouched by the technologies and new business models of this "New Economy"?"
I think the productivity gains vs. the learning curve are not great enough at this point to push the majority of contractors to change their methods. To convert from a "yellow legal pad" method to electronic takes TONS of discipline, and most contractors can't be bothered until they will no longer survive if they don't adapt. & even then, many will simply go out of business.
technological advances with quick learning curves which increase productivity are adopted quickly:
- pneumatic nail guns vs. hand nailing
- prehung doors vs. doing it from scratch
- vinyl siding vs. aluminum vs. wood
- truss roofs vs. stickframe
- using the internet for research rather than calling a company, getting a brochure
When the technology pays $$$ easily it will be adapted.
Marine Engineer
i love this question, i am sorry i was not here for the roiginal in 2000, i am sure i would like to post on that one two!
there is definitely a learning curve to using technology, and our industry has traditionally been slow to adapt, but thats not all there is to it.
i am basically just a carpenter with 20 + yrs exp, but in my lifetime i have seen things change and it almost seems we are going backwards. as an apprentice in the tracts of houses in southern california in the last half of the 70's i was taught the modern techniques of the time. efficiency in motion, a beautiful thing. there were large crews split into smaller groups of 2's or 3's that could build with amazing speed. after you had worked as a part of a team where they all use the same system you become interchangeable, just plug in where you need the manpower and go.
then in the 80's it changed, we began working by ourselves more and more, we lost uniformity and standard. we became less efficient. i think a lot of the reason for this is economic, somehow it seemed it was cheaper to employ a man working less efficiently by himself than a team. the team needs to be supervised, the logistics have to be in place, etc. part of this is the scope of the work got smaller as well.
henry ford was always one of my heroes, but i recently learned that he did not invent the assembly line. he was just the first successfull one to employ it in automotive production. i saw a show on the history channel about winchester and how he had used the technique before ford in the rifle factory.
i still think that the people that come up with the system to modernize home construction will be the fords of the next millenium. we already see the use of digitized CAD plans being sent via e-mail for the construction of custom cabinets, how long will it be untill entire projects are built this way, where every piece is cut before any two are assembled. and it all arrives in a conex boxes that are offloaded onsite and then just assembled.
there are already companies that supposedly offer this service now but untill they get the quality control down, and offer a reputable product to the general public (read "little guy") it won't take off.
i have the solution, and have written letters before in attempts to secure the position to develop the program. i want to build homes on spec with very small crew, (1-3) and go through all the steps to troubleshoot whatever problems may arise. after using new crews repeatedly and answering their questions, and an earnest attempt to deliver high quality and fit on the supplier side i should be ready to outsource these jobs to cheap labor third world countries and sell franchises to installers here in the states. if i can figure a way to sew up the financing and carry the paper i can eliminate the banks as well, then after i control most of the real estate development in north america i will turn my attention to world domination.
California Uber Alles!
skids re:"i love this question, i am sorry i was not here for the roiginal in 2000, i am sure i would like to post on that one two!"
The old discussion didn't make it through translation into this Prospero based forum system. I however saved a copy of it at the time and if your interested in looking it over here's a PDF of it.(WhenDoYouThink_2000.pdf)
"henry ford was always one of my heroes, but i recently learned that he did not invent the assembly line. he was just the first successfull one to employ it in automotive production. i saw a show on the history channel about winchester and how he had used the technique before ford in the rifle factory."
Interestingly enough Taichii Ohno and Shigeo Shingo who are credited with developing the Just-In-Time production techniques (aka the Toyota Production System) didn't come up with that as a totally original idea. If I recall the story correctly they came to the US and observed production techniques being employed in Henry Fords plants and then combined what they learned there with what they also observed happening in American grocery stores at the time. In the grocery stores (the early supermarkets) they saw that as stock was pulled off the shelf it was replenished from the back "just-in-time" with "just enough" for the next person. In other words they developed a "Lean" inventory system of parts availability for the assembly line production of automobile thereby eliminating the waste in keeping large inventories on hand.
And taking that another step further back in the late seventies and early eighties when the US Auto industry and US industry as a whole began to embrace Japanese style management and Quality with Total Quality Management is was sometimes lost that American W. Edwards Deming is credited with being the father of modern Japanese Quality. Quoting something from the Deming Institute:
Excellent post by the way, good thinking and interesting stuff in there. And I like your attitude, serious or not.
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why thank you Jerrald, my attitude is totally serious by the way, i have long held that attitude and ability go together, and the persons responsible for the implementing a system to modernize construction will be thinking of the big picture, i was just trying to point that attitude out, as well as take a little jab at the capitalist system of outsourcing and franchising in our economic society as a form of modern slavery. if i can make money from an employee then i can offer employment, but if i am making money from his labors am i not exploiting to some degree?
an ethical question to be sure but i didn't ask to be brought into this world, i was dragged in kicking and screaming, and i didn't make the rules, I am just trying to play the game
Does anybody here know what business Ray Croc (the founder of McDonald's) is in? (spelling)
ya ya i know this is the fun part, Ray is in the real estate business. he is the largest private land owner in the usa, ahead of even the catholic church. ya see he carries the paper on all the land those franchises are planted on, and you all just thought he was in the hamburger business.
my point is that it is someone with these same ambitions and visions that will modernize construction. all they have to do is take the pieces that already exist and put them together, with a little fine tuning and improvements along the way the sky is the limit. I would like to add that i am available to start in aprox 2 & 1/2 months when my current project is complete. i am perfectly willing to take a percentage in lieu of wages!
When I mentioned BuildNet earlier (msg#43777.15) I had also wanted to post a links to a Builder Magazine articles on it's failure but couldn't find them. Well I just found it, the URLs I had were old ones from before they reorganized their site, so here they are.
Promise Unfulfilled -(12/6/2000)
Frustration continues for builders as hopes die that BuildNet would be able to fulfill their needs for business software systems.
The latest installment in the home building industry's seemingly never-ending quest for viable business software ended a couple weeks ago when BuildNet filed for bankruptcy protection.
Killer Application-
(3/22/2000) Promising all, delivering nothing, BuildNet devastates the industry.
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Jerrald,
My calculator shows and hour wasted for every $1500 of material. Since I use about 60k in material a year that would mean I waste 40 hours a year in time with my pad type method. Although I have made out a sheet to quickly calculate bathroom remodels it is difficult and time consuming to update as the price fluxuations and new product lines can skew it rapidly.
I think what it really comes down to is how big you are, how much volume you do in order to make it worthwhile. And a lot of guys, me, Jeff Buck, Calvin, Andy C are 1-3 man companies that don't do the volume to make it worthwhile.
My job size is such that I only use subs 10-12 times a year. Heck I just built the first deck I have built in at least 2 years. How on earth could I justify having that in a info bank and spend even minimum amounts of time updating a job that only will occure once or twice a year.
No if I did the volume some describe then I suppose it would make sense. Or if I enjoyed computers as a hobby. Or if I had enough volume to hire someone for it. But at my company size, man power level, just doesn't make sense when I can knock out a complete quote with a note pad and type it up on Word in 20-30 minutes. Besides if it was faster what would I do early Saturday morning while the wife sleeps in? DanT
DanT "My calculator shows and hour wasted for every $1500 of material." Whoops I didn't spot that error. My calculator does work (Excel) and gives me the same result you got but my typing sucks and errors like that go right by the spell checker. Mea culpa and thanks for pointing that out.
"I think what it really comes down to is how big you are, how much volume you do in order to make it worthwhile. And a lot of guys, me, Jeff Buck, Calvin, Andy C are 1-3 man companies that don't do the volume to make it worthwhile." See I don't agree with that at all. We're a three man company too and we see the gains from our use of technology all over the place.
"My job size is such that I only use subs 10-12 times a year. Heck I just built the first deck I have built in at least 2 years. How on earth could I justify having that in a info bank and spend even minimum amounts of time updating a job that only will occure once or twice a year. " I actually have been over just this with a lot more than one contractor several times in the last few months. We have something like 4200 items in the material database we keep and yet in the course of a year we may only use 200 to 1500 of them. There are a few of them haven't been used or updated since 1997 but if I plug use that value in a unit cost estimate item there is a flag there that tells me that price is a 1997 price and it needs to be updated. If I'm using a price for 4/4 cherry and we used that confirmed 4/4 price only five months ago we don't check it out until we get the order and then we see if it matches the cost we had in the Purchase Order and update it then. You don't just sit down an update all your prices all at once. You update them only when you use them and can identify that they have changed. One of the other things we do within our system is we also monitor what I call "frequency" so I can even identify the materials we order the most quantities of or the specific materials we typical spend the most dollars on so that I know that those 20 or 30 prices are the ones I really have to look at, watch, and keep an eye on. Not all 200 to 1500 of the ones we may typically use in a year.
I have the same thing going that you do where I have templates or models of the few typical projects that we plug them into an estimate and then just tweak the quantities and look at the revision dates on the materials costs and update as needed but we never have to call up a yard or a supplier for a full materials order and then wait for their fax back as I see so many contractors doing with every estimate they do because we have this database at hand like I said 24/7/365.
Plus I have it so that as the estimate is produced the values from it are automatically entered into the Contract form or RFQ or RFP. I'm not copying, pasting, or typing really anything and that saves tons of time. And when it becomes time to invoice for a phase of the job too I don't have to "type up" an invoice I just have to click and choose what phases to include and then press print and the invoice is done. And there are no spelling or math errors like I got writing up that post earlier too!
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Jerrald,
Just glad it wasn't an error on a bid! LOL. I see what you are saying but frankly I have hours in my bathroom sheet and updating it (noticed yesterday my supplier is closing out some of the brands I quote) and learning to use a new program in the process I believe would take years to get the time back. If your figure of an hour for 1500 is true, probably is.
So if I take 60 hours to learn a new program, build a new schedule and say 10 hours a year to up date my recoup would be in the 2-3 year range. Not as bad as I would guess. But if my computer dies I am screwed. Hmmm. I will think it over. DanT
Marine Engineer "I think the productivity gains vs. the learning curve are not great enough at this point to push the majority of contractors to change their methods. To convert from a "yellow legal pad" method to electronic takes TONS of discipline, and most contractors can't be bothered until they will no longer survive if they don't adapt. & even then, many will simply go out of business."
Well, I only sort of agree with that but I get your point. While I do agree that contractors in general SEE converting "yellow legal pad" method to digital methods as taking "TONS of discipline" I think that the reality is it really doesn't take nearly that much discipline or effort and most contractors really use that as an excuse and just don't see or understand the increases and benefits in the "Office work " or "Overhead" end of productivity.
Back in that original discussion I quoted a study that said:
That's one hour of wasted time for every $150 dollars of materials ordered and I totally agree with that accessment because I see it all the time happening with contractors we work with. Guys call up suppliers for prices of materials that are essentially the same materials they ordered a week or two ago not because they want to get current pricing but because they just don't have those prices they got entered in their own database system so that they can be referenced.
In my own system I have it so that my current price for a 2x6 from my preferred supplier is linked to maybe 40 or 50 Unit Cost records whether is used as a beam or girder, or in a partition, or as a roof rafter. I have that cost for 2x6 available to me 24/7/365 days a years so I don't necessarily have to wait until Tuesday after the Memorial Day weekend to estimate and price a project. And then if and when the price I pay for that 2x6 changes (the change gets noticed when a Purchase Order is reconciled) it then automatically changes the 2x6 cost in all those other records so they are all brought up to date. It's only anecdotal but I think our estimating process is eight to ten times faster than our competitors and likewise even more accurate and precise.
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Interesting topic.
the purchase of materials, scheduling of labor, marketing of homes, choice of options, and origination of mortgages
You state that the above didn't happen...
I don't quite follow. I'm not in the building biz any longer, having switched to real estate. As I near the end of building my own new home, and from my experience in real estate, I see all of the above, except scheduling of labor, as dominated by use of the internet.
For my new place I bought vent fans, electrical parts, ridge vent, sno jax, and various tools directly from internet vendors. DW and I shopped online for cabinetry, siding, door style, windows, and various other things.
The marketing of real estate is so dependent on website use that anyone who doesn't have a decent website can't compete even in a rural area such as ours.
The lenders we work with do almost eveything online from qualifying buyers to providing loan documents to electronic fund transfer. Same with the title insurance companies.
From some other angles:
Are you familiar with "Learning Style Analysis"? I think there are many in the building trades who are "kinesthetic" learners who simply don't do well with computers and keyboards. They want to be hands on, to speak directly with suppliers and customers, to carry materials, to use tools, etc.
What about "old world craftsmanship". I know it's become a cliche, but some really just don't want to modernize. Personally, I don't see that as any handicap to their work. As long as they like it that way and find customers who want to work with them on that sort of basis, so be it.
I also wonder what sort of three man operation you have. (I didn't check out your link) I've worked in a three person construction company where we rarely held a tool or maybe I should say that our primary tool was the telephone. i.e. we didn't do the hands-on trade labor. I've also worked in a three man outfit where we did all the hands-on trade labor. We made way more money in the management company and I vastly preferred working hands-on and on-site.
Perhaps we are all seeing what we are looking for!
You're unique! Just like everyone else! Scott Adams
These systems are based on data, garbage in, garbage out. If the builder doesn't have a handle on his costs, labor times, scheduling etc....... there is no way he is just going to magically punch on some keys and be mister efficient builder.
I have worked with many fortune 500 companies implementing these type of systems as well as starting up all kinds of "lean" "TQM" "JIT" etc..... etc... programs and you must truelly believe in yourself that they will work or else they won't and everyone from the top down must be on board. They don't run themselves. They are based on data that comes from people who are continually analyzing and improving their processes. It takes amazing dedication to spend your time on the process instead of actually working on the job and the belief that you are investing in your future and the majority of builders just don't fit that mold. They have a hard enough time even figuring out what overhead and profit is or how to schedule work load, how are they suppose to all of a sudden break down every part of the process and then improve it when they don't even know what the complete process is or how it truelly works.
I have only seen a handful of companies out of the 100s that I have either worked with or have studied that are actually doing it. Most are just going through the motions. The problem is a human problem, most people just simply don't want to do it, no matter what. I can save big companies millions of dollars but they simply just won't do it. They say they do, but it takes PEOPLE to make it happen, not computers, and people are not machines.
You have to first get a handle and develop the old way before you can move on and stream line the system. Most important they must truelly believe that it will work and be a benefit to them and also be willing to put in the time to continually improve it and make it happen. Most people just aren't willing to put in that effort because most people want instant results, plus people just don't like change and aren't willing to do it. People are willing to go bankrupt before doing anything that could help them.
garbage in garbage out! i love it! i was working on the pleasanton/dublin BART station in 93/94 for kasler construction, we were widening the existing bridge (post stressed box section concrete overpass, yes its considered bridge building in cali) to make room for the bart station in the center (Bay Area Rapid Transit).
it was my job as the layout man to put nails and strings on the back side of the abutments and adjoining wing walls so the ironworkers would know where to locate the top of the reinforcing steel. (structural concrete is strongest when rebar is 2" from the surface, and in an earthquake zone on a road my family may well be driving on i consider it critical)
i was working closely with the project engineer, and he would give me the print out from the computer directly. as i started to lay it out i realized the printout was wrong but how do i convince the engineer that i am right, and his computer is wrong? fortunately for me the project engineer was a recent grad who had spent summers working as a laborer so he had lots of common construction sense, and i had the forsight to lay it out with strings starting from 3 different positions to clearly show the error. when i asked the engineer to look at what i had done he got it right away, and went back to the drawing board, and corrected the problem in the puter.
i wrote a copyright for my idea in 1994 for a computer program for construction layout that double and triple checks itself, by laying out the same detail from different starting points to see that they all arrive at the same finishing point, with the same angles and measurements to eliminate "garbage in, garbage out".
recently i took a cad classes at the local J.C., and when doing an assignnment on the fron elevation i asked the teacher about determining the correct height of the front door threshold, corresponding to interior subfloor height, and finish floor of course. i maid the point from a builders perspective that if i could determine these numbers on the CAD program in my drawing that it would save me time later, when i built. The teachers response was that he didn't want me to waste time fussing over those details, and that it was the carpenter in the fields job to make the determination. Teacher said i should just pick a spot on the exterior elevation that looked close, it did not have to correspond exactly to interior elevations.
I was and am aghast, i am trying to get the CAD plan to do not only estimates of materials, but detailed cutlists and critical numbers of critical locations in the build. I want to double and triple check in the plan stage on my computer when i can put up nails and strings with the click of a mouse instead climbing on a ladder and trying to pull the string tight enough not to sag so i can step back and see if it looks right.
Now this is information management, when the drafter has some knowledge of building, and incorporates with a CAD plan a materials list with costs, a cutlist that can be fed to a CNC machine, that can be e-mailed anywhere in the world so that parts can be cut and assembled in sections, (like walls or stairs or cabinets frinstance) and delivered onsite at the proper time for quick and easy assembly. I contend that for it to work you have to build it in your head as you draw, and have a system of double and triple checks. And as the drafter follows the projects in the field and corrects and fine tunes it is only a matter of time before it is cheaper to tear down and re-build than to remodel using legal pad estimating contractors. If that happens its going to put a lot of little guys out of work, and they will be lining up for their chance to buy a franchise. The machines and technology are already out there, and there are several companies that use it now. The trade publication "Automated Builder features articles on the subject every month. http://www.automatedbuilder.com
I knew you'd say you wouldn't hire that guy even when I was typing it!
But ... if you were me ...?? ... you'd be wrong.
He's a sub I trust to the highest degree ... and if this project goes thru ... it's gonna be a pain in the #### from day one right up till the very last second ...
so I'd be stupid to base such a critical sub selection on something as meaningless as "money" ... ya know?
I know ... that dude ... will get "it" done .... and done right ... even both no one knows what "it" ... exactly is yet!
If "it" goes smoother ... unlikely ... he'll make an extra buck.
If "it" is even worse than we all expect ... he'll be working a few longer days and dividing his hourly out to a smaller number in the end ...
But "it" is a part of major remodeling ...
and there's no computer estimating program out there that can effectively estimate numbers for such a project.
But ... he's dug dirt before ... and he's kept stuff from falling over before ... and he's poured concrete into those holes before .... so take a little of this ... and a little of that ... and guess what .... bet he's pretty darn close to "guessing" what it'll take to get the job done.
People that rely heavily on technology for the most part really like to complicate things.
If I know Bob's one of the few guys I'd trust to do such a project ... and I get a firm number from Bob ... why complicate my life? Bob don't have a computer ... but if he said it'll cost my customer $22.5K ... it's gonna cost my customer $22.5K.
His use or lack there of of a PDA in no way affects how he digs holes ...
so why complicate things?
For a similar example .... if you wanted a tile bid from me ... we'd talk about the project ... do a walk thru ... get a real good idea of the tiles and the layout ...
Then I'd walk thru again myself ... and add up the days .. using my "that'll take abouta" method.
I'd give you a labor price without even going back out to the van.
And because I did it off the top of my head instead of trusting my Craftsman CD more than myself ... you'd probably end up hiring the next guy that pulled the numbers out of some program he had back at the office.
Jeff
Buck Construction, llc Pittsburgh,PA
Artistry in Carpentry